Overview:

All models below were executed with impulse indicator saturation (IIS) enabled and a block size of 20. In order to avoid endless output, where reasonable, we present only the model specifications with GDP, population, weather controls, all three ETS phase dummies (2005, 2008, 2013) and ETS price, a p-value threshold of 0.01, and spanning 1990-2021.

Country sample: EU-15 (excluding Luxembourg), United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Switzerland

Emissions: Levels

w. ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:44:29 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.0472e-01  6.9022e-01   0.4415 0.6590340          
                lpop                     7.0025e-03  2.3817e-01   0.0294 0.9765553          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -2.6230e-03  1.3581e-02  -0.1931 0.8469188          
                hdd                      1.8510e-04  2.6431e-05   7.0031 7.268e-12 ***      
                cdd                      3.2576e-04  7.5382e-05   4.3215 1.837e-05 ***      
                EU_ETS_05               -1.0634e-01  3.0516e-02  -3.4847 0.0005316 ***      
                EU_ETS_08               -5.1456e-02  3.1451e-02  -1.6361 0.1023860          
                EU_ETS_13               -1.1108e-01  2.9132e-02  -3.8132 0.0001526 ***      
                idAustria               -2.4749e+00  1.7047e-01 -14.5184 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.7276e+00  1.2065e-01 -14.3191 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -8.0021e-01  1.3457e-01  -5.9466 4.847e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.5269e+00  2.4721e-01  -6.1766 1.267e-09 ***      
                idFinland               -2.0807e+00  2.5882e-01  -8.0392 5.479e-15 ***      
                idFrance                -1.5058e+00  2.3453e-01  -6.4207 2.915e-10 ***      
                idGermany                3.8124e-01  2.8529e-01   1.3363 0.1819854          
                idGreece                -1.2568e+00  8.8849e-02 -14.1451 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.2357e+00  2.8486e-01  -7.8482 2.185e-14 ***      
                idItaly                 -3.7940e-01  2.2388e-01  -1.6947 0.0907005 .        
                idJapan                  5.2805e-01  3.6052e-01   1.4647 0.1435754          
                idNetherlands           -1.2009e+00  8.0079e-02 -14.9971 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -3.1315e+00  2.8697e-01 -10.9125 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.7776e+00  9.2664e-02 -19.1839 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -8.0014e-01  1.8417e-01  -4.3447 1.659e-05 ***      
                idSweden                -2.9597e+00  1.6410e-01 -18.0353 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.3325e+00  2.2042e-01 -19.6556 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          7.8825e-02  2.3034e-01   0.3422 0.7323222          
                idUnitedStates           1.9761e+00  4.9218e-01   4.0149 6.765e-05 ***      
                time1990                 5.0344e+00  1.0039e+01   0.5015 0.6162139          
                time1991                 5.0506e+00  1.0038e+01   0.5031 0.6150768          
                time1992                 5.0789e+00  1.0039e+01   0.5059 0.6130998          
                time1993                 5.0193e+00  1.0039e+01   0.5000 0.6172840          
                time1994                 5.0459e+00  1.0038e+01   0.5027 0.6154000          
                time1995                 5.0687e+00  1.0038e+01   0.5049 0.6138061          
                time1996                 5.0815e+00  1.0037e+01   0.5063 0.6128642          
                time1997                 5.1016e+00  1.0036e+01   0.5084 0.6114082          
                time1998                 5.1339e+00  1.0034e+01   0.5116 0.6091101          
                time1999                 5.1446e+00  1.0033e+01   0.5128 0.6083299          
                time2000                 5.1563e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5140 0.6074572          
                time2001                 5.1651e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5149 0.6068200          
                time2002                 5.2180e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5202 0.6031404          
                time2003                 5.2087e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5193 0.6037753          
                time2004                 5.2194e+00  1.0030e+01   0.5204 0.6029939          
                time2005                 5.2968e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5280 0.5977349          
                time2006                 5.3080e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5291 0.5969298          
                time2007                 5.3191e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5303 0.5961278          
                time2008                 5.2904e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5274 0.5981088          
                time2009                 5.2084e+00  1.0034e+01   0.5191 0.6039044          
                time2010                 5.1729e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5156 0.6063282          
                time2011                 5.2191e+00  1.0033e+01   0.5202 0.6031269          
                time2012                 5.1491e+00  1.0034e+01   0.5132 0.6080444          
                time2013                 5.1834e+00  1.0029e+01   0.5168 0.6054905          
                time2014                 5.1473e+00  1.0030e+01   0.5132 0.6080114          
                time2015                 5.0970e+00  1.0029e+01   0.5082 0.6114856          
                time2016                 5.0756e+00  1.0029e+01   0.5061 0.6129874          
                time2017                 5.0762e+00  1.0028e+01   0.5062 0.6129051          
                time2018                 4.9780e+00  1.0027e+01   0.4965 0.6197585          
                time2019                 4.9099e+00  1.0026e+01   0.4897 0.6245328          
                time2020                 4.8700e+00  1.0031e+01   0.4855 0.6275114          
                time2021                 4.8697e+00  1.0027e+01   0.4857 0.6274064          
                iis202                  -2.4873e-01  9.5713e-02  -2.5987 0.0096057 **       
                iis590                  -4.3271e-01  9.5762e-02  -4.5186 7.612e-06 ***      
                iis591                  -4.8115e-01  9.5780e-02  -5.0235 6.853e-07 ***      
                iis592                  -3.8589e-01  9.5742e-02  -4.0306 6.342e-05 ***      
                fesisCanada.2005        -1.7701e-01  3.7803e-02  -4.6825 3.567e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2005  -1.7954e-01  4.9123e-02  -3.6548 0.0002818 ***      
                fesisAustria.2008        1.0137e-01  3.7409e-02   2.7098 0.0069403 **       
                fesisAustria.2017        1.9197e-01  5.0608e-02   3.7933 0.0001650 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.0302e-01  3.4158e-02  -5.9435 4.934e-09 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.0153e-01  5.1736e-02   5.8283 9.500e-09 ***      
                fesisGermany.2012        1.4549e-01  4.1249e-02   3.5272 0.0004547 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.6491e-01  4.0143e-02  -9.0902 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2011       -3.4411e-01  4.3048e-02  -7.9935 7.645e-15 ***      
                fesisSpain.1999          1.5692e-01  3.8208e-02   4.1070 4.613e-05 ***      
                fesisFrance.2005         1.7906e-01  3.4570e-02   5.1797 3.115e-07 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -1.9991e-01  4.7528e-02  -4.2062 3.027e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3628e-01  4.4028e-02  -9.9092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.1995    1.2940e-01  4.5466e-02   2.8460 0.0045902 **       
                fesisNetherlands.2014    3.1089e-01  3.8997e-02   7.9721 8.932e-15 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2015       2.7015e-01  4.6629e-02   5.7937 1.155e-08 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2020      -4.0725e-01  7.4996e-02  -5.4303 8.425e-08 ***      
                fesisSweden.2016         2.0980e-01  4.2252e-02   4.9655 9.135e-07 ***      
                fesisJapan.2012          3.2765e-01  4.5664e-02   7.1753 2.321e-12 ***      
                fesisAustralia.1999      1.3380e-01  4.1837e-02   3.1982 0.0014618 **       
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.8442e-01  4.6065e-02  10.5161 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.2013    -2.3902e-01  4.4641e-02  -5.3544 1.259e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   61.353  1 4.774e-15 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 16.264  1 5.509e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08704      
                R-squared          0.99742      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  696.86467      

AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:45:23 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:34:22 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.8316e-01  5.2252e-01   0.7333 0.4636822          
                lpop                     2.5710e-02  2.0058e-01   0.1282 0.8980504          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.9737e-03  1.0103e-02  -0.1954 0.8451842          
                hdd                      1.8635e-04  2.8679e-05   6.4980 1.782e-10 ***      
                cdd                      2.9071e-04  8.1415e-05   3.5707 0.0003862 ***      
                idAustria               -2.3864e+00  1.5702e-01 -15.1982 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.6929e+00  1.1453e-01 -14.7813 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -9.4728e-01  1.2851e-01  -7.3713 6.000e-13 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.4402e+00  2.1883e-01  -6.5816 1.059e-10 ***      
                idFinland               -2.0095e+00  2.3713e-01  -8.4743 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -1.6448e+00  1.9577e-01  -8.4016 3.543e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.4730e-01  2.3215e-01   0.6345 0.5260232          
                idGreece                -1.1625e+00  9.5293e-02 -12.1987 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.0252e+00  2.5858e-01  -7.8319 2.372e-14 ***      
                idItaly                 -5.7817e-01  1.8147e-01  -3.1860 0.0015219 **       
                idJapan                  2.7138e-01  2.9279e-01   0.9269 0.3543760          
                idNetherlands           -1.1563e+00  7.5140e-02 -15.3890 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -2.9421e+00  2.5504e-01 -11.5357 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.6605e+00  9.9377e-02 -16.7086 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -8.1602e-01  1.5359e-01  -5.3129 1.552e-07 ***      
                idSweden                -2.9349e+00  1.5369e-01 -19.0959 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.3318e+00  1.9705e-01 -21.9826 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -1.2165e-01  1.9684e-01  -0.6180 0.5368090          
                idUnitedStates           1.5255e+00  3.9093e-01   3.9021 0.0001068 ***      
                time1990                 2.1694e+00  8.1484e+00   0.2662 0.7901524          
                time1991                 2.1838e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2680 0.7887960          
                time1992                 2.2095e+00  8.1487e+00   0.2712 0.7863733          
                time1993                 2.1487e+00  8.1490e+00   0.2637 0.7921204          
                time1994                 2.1748e+00  8.1497e+00   0.2668 0.7896820          
                time1995                 2.2014e+00  8.1496e+00   0.2701 0.7871600          
                time1996                 2.2090e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2711 0.7864221          
                time1997                 2.2281e+00  8.1479e+00   0.2735 0.7845981          
                time1998                 2.2573e+00  8.1477e+00   0.2770 0.7818488          
                time1999                 2.2759e+00  8.1471e+00   0.2794 0.7800766          
                time2000                 2.2820e+00  8.1463e+00   0.2801 0.7794792          
                time2001                 2.2923e+00  8.1462e+00   0.2814 0.7785109          
                time2002                 2.3427e+00  8.1465e+00   0.2876 0.7737849          
                time2003                 2.3337e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2864 0.7746467          
                time2004                 2.3568e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2893 0.7724218          
                time2005                 2.3489e+00  8.1455e+00   0.2884 0.7731728          
                time2006                 2.3518e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2887 0.7728920          
                time2007                 2.3578e+00  8.1448e+00   0.2895 0.7723198          
                time2008                 2.2859e+00  8.1450e+00   0.2807 0.7790799          
                time2009                 2.2088e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2711 0.7864052          
                time2010                 2.1712e+00  8.1467e+00   0.2665 0.7899465          
                time2011                 2.1751e+00  8.1475e+00   0.2670 0.7895961          
                time2012                 2.1486e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2637 0.7921085          
                time2013                 2.0917e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2567 0.7974853          
                time2014                 2.0557e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2523 0.8009054          
                time2015                 2.0169e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2475 0.8045914          
                time2016                 2.0072e+00  8.1483e+00   0.2463 0.8055092          
                time2017                 2.0020e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2457 0.8060029          
                time2018                 1.9131e+00  8.1482e+00   0.2348 0.8144584          
                time2019                 1.8407e+00  8.1480e+00   0.2259 0.8213575          
                time2020                 1.7854e+00  8.1511e+00   0.2190 0.8267030          
                time2021                 1.7780e+00  8.1488e+00   0.2182 0.8273578          
                iis590                  -4.0171e-01  1.0596e-01  -3.7910 0.0001661 ***      
                iis591                  -4.3188e-01  1.0593e-01  -4.0772 5.210e-05 ***      
                iis592                  -3.3574e-01  1.0594e-01  -3.1692 0.0016110 **       
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.7149e-01  3.7420e-02  -7.2553 1.322e-12 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2006    1.0711e-01  3.8828e-02   2.7586 0.0059920 **       
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.4196e-01  5.7791e-02   5.9173 5.662e-09 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.2142e-01  5.5455e-02  -5.7961 1.126e-08 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004       -1.5421e-01  5.6578e-02  -2.7256 0.0066162 **       
                fesisDenmark.2012       -3.8209e-01  5.1375e-02  -7.4373 3.812e-13 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.4894e-01  5.0376e-02  -4.9415 1.021e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1137e-01  4.6523e-02 -10.9919 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisIreland.2004       -2.1441e-01  4.6932e-02  -4.5685 6.028e-06 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2014    2.5604e-01  4.0789e-02   6.2771 6.853e-10 ***      
                fesisJapan.2011          4.7526e-01  3.9446e-02  12.0482 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2008      2.2597e-01  4.0164e-02   5.6262 2.896e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.5726e-01  4.9717e-02   9.1974 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   114.542  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  42.801  1  6.06e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09648      
                R-squared          0.99675      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  624.46953      

AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:35:03 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

Model Overview

Note: Countries in which no break was detected are excluded from these overview plots.

by country

w.o ETS

w. ETS

by model

w.o ETS

w. ETS

by outcome variable

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

France

Germany

Ireland

Japan

Netherlands

NewZealand

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Demand Channel: Generation, Demand, Imports, Exports

Elec Demand Twh

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:51:22 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  1.1109e+00  1.5623e-01   7.1104 3.599e-12 ***      
                lpop                     1.3613e-01  5.6546e-02   2.4074 0.0163938 *        
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.5977e-02  2.9881e-03  -5.3471 1.311e-07 ***      
                hdd                      6.0546e-05  8.3096e-06   7.2863 1.107e-12 ***      
                cdd                      1.0597e-04  2.3551e-05   4.4998 8.299e-06 ***      
                idAustria               -9.2906e-01  4.4355e-02 -20.9460 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -6.2539e-01  3.2106e-02 -19.4786 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 7.7315e-01  3.6589e-02  21.1306 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.2113e+00  6.0792e-02 -19.9245 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -5.2533e-01  6.6149e-02  -7.9416 1.125e-14 ***      
                idFrance                 4.6299e-01  5.5109e-02   8.4012 3.756e-16 ***      
                idGermany                5.9139e-01  6.8658e-02   8.6135 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGreece                -1.0465e+00  2.7620e-02 -37.8888 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -1.6095e+00  7.1912e-02 -22.3810 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  8.1112e-02  5.1121e-02   1.5867 0.1131593          
                idJapan                  9.8362e-01  8.2256e-02  11.9580 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNetherlands           -5.7380e-01  2.1654e-02 -26.4988 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -8.2527e-01  6.9731e-02 -11.8351 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.1548e+00  2.9983e-02 -38.5136 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -1.0138e-01  4.3851e-02  -2.3120 0.0211463 *        
                idSweden                -1.2096e-01  4.4380e-02  -2.7255 0.0066250 **       
                idSwitzerland           -1.0532e+00  5.4057e-02 -19.4833 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          2.5973e-01  5.4262e-02   4.7867 2.180e-06 ***      
                idUnitedStates           1.9924e+00  1.1459e-01  17.3865 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                -1.5680e+01  2.2869e+00  -6.8562 1.899e-11 ***      
                time1991                -1.5671e+01  2.2870e+00  -6.8522 1.949e-11 ***      
                time1992                -1.5656e+01  2.2869e+00  -6.8461 2.026e-11 ***      
                time1993                -1.5650e+01  2.2869e+00  -6.8430 2.068e-11 ***      
                time1994                -1.5632e+01  2.2872e+00  -6.8343 2.186e-11 ***      
                time1995                -1.5609e+01  2.2872e+00  -6.8247 2.326e-11 ***      
                time1996                -1.5594e+01  2.2868e+00  -6.8191 2.411e-11 ***      
                time1997                -1.5581e+01  2.2866e+00  -6.8141 2.489e-11 ***      
                time1998                -1.5562e+01  2.2866e+00  -6.8055 2.630e-11 ***      
                time1999                -1.5547e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.8005 2.716e-11 ***      
                time2000                -1.5508e+01  2.2859e+00  -6.7844 3.011e-11 ***      
                time2001                -1.5522e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7905 2.896e-11 ***      
                time2002                -1.5497e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7796 3.105e-11 ***      
                time2003                -1.5501e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7806 3.085e-11 ***      
                time2004                -1.5480e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7722 3.256e-11 ***      
                time2005                -1.5470e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7679 3.347e-11 ***      
                time2006                -1.5461e+01  2.2858e+00  -6.7642 3.426e-11 ***      
                time2007                -1.5449e+01  2.2855e+00  -6.7595 3.530e-11 ***      
                time2008                -1.5449e+01  2.2856e+00  -6.7594 3.531e-11 ***      
                time2009                -1.5490e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7756 3.185e-11 ***      
                time2010                -1.5483e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7727 3.244e-11 ***      
                time2011                -1.5480e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7718 3.262e-11 ***      
                time2012                -1.5495e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7778 3.140e-11 ***      
                time2013                -1.5504e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7817 3.063e-11 ***      
                time2014                -1.5504e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7821 3.055e-11 ***      
                time2015                -1.5513e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7858 2.984e-11 ***      
                time2016                -1.5511e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7849 3.001e-11 ***      
                time2017                -1.5512e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7855 2.990e-11 ***      
                time2018                -1.5518e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7880 2.942e-11 ***      
                time2019                -1.5530e+01  2.2860e+00  -6.7933 2.844e-11 ***      
                time2020                -1.5532e+01  2.2867e+00  -6.7922 2.864e-11 ***      
                time2021                -1.5529e+01  2.2861e+00  -6.7925 2.858e-11 ***      
                iis204                  -1.4098e-01  3.1393e-02  -4.4907 8.647e-06 ***      
                iis205                  -1.4489e-01  3.1362e-02  -4.6198 4.784e-06 ***      
                iis206                  -1.1026e-01  3.1205e-02  -3.5335 0.0004445 ***      
                iis207                  -1.2380e-01  3.1227e-02  -3.9646 8.317e-05 ***      
                iis208                  -1.1644e-01  3.1246e-02  -3.7268 0.0002139 ***      
                iis209                  -8.1200e-02  3.1307e-02  -2.5937 0.0097478 **       
                iis210                  -8.7071e-02  3.1316e-02  -2.7804 0.0056153 **       
                iis436                  -1.0632e-01  3.0138e-02  -3.5277 0.0004541 ***      
                iis437                  -8.6092e-02  3.0023e-02  -2.8675 0.0042957 **       
                iis465                   2.0764e-01  2.9468e-02   7.0463 5.500e-12 ***      
                iis466                   1.8277e-01  2.9386e-02   6.2197 9.841e-10 ***      
                iis467                   1.6889e-01  2.9381e-02   5.7484 1.491e-08 ***      
                iis468                   1.5286e-01  2.9354e-02   5.2075 2.706e-07 ***      
                iis469                   1.0183e-01  2.9402e-02   3.4635 0.0005746 ***      
                iis470                   9.5643e-02  2.9352e-02   3.2585 0.0011888 **       
                fesisCanada.2002        -8.7264e-02  1.0793e-02  -8.0854 3.944e-15 ***      
                fesisAustria.2008        4.8115e-02  1.7508e-02   2.7481 0.0061897 **       
                fesisAustria.2011        8.4565e-02  1.8184e-02   4.6505 4.148e-06 ***      
                fesisGermany.1995       -9.0621e-02  1.4064e-02  -6.4436 2.544e-10 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2000       -1.2105e-01  1.5432e-02  -7.8440 2.272e-14 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2005       -5.8258e-02  1.4307e-02  -4.0721 5.342e-05 ***      
                fesisSpain.2001          1.6542e-01  1.5455e-02  10.7032 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -5.5095e-02  1.3536e-02  -4.0702 5.384e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2008 -1.2114e-01  1.2502e-02  -9.6899 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2001         1.5955e-01  1.3106e-02  12.1733 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2010         3.9929e-02  1.3433e-02   2.9726 0.0030821 **       
                fesisIreland.1997        9.9071e-02  1.6391e-02   6.0441 2.766e-09 ***      
                fesisPortugal.1999       1.5474e-01  1.5249e-02  10.1475 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2006       1.2540e-01  1.3004e-02   9.6428 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisSweden.2006        -1.3818e-01  1.1488e-02 -12.0284 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2009      6.6316e-02  1.1516e-02   5.7584 1.411e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1999    -8.4323e-02  1.2968e-02  -6.5023 1.772e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   233.41  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 159.49  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.02714      
                R-squared           0.99962      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  1444.12531      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:51:39 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                9.2739e-01  9.2133e-03 100.6576 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb            1.9316e-01  7.2198e-02   2.6755 0.0076843 **       
                lpop              -1.0155e+00  2.6207e-01  -3.8749 0.0001195 ***      
                lgdp_wb_sq         1.6028e-02  3.4094e-03   4.7011 3.273e-06 ***      
                hdd                4.4203e-06  1.8289e-05   0.2417 0.8091072          
                cdd               -1.3747e-04  2.6104e-05  -5.2662 2.000e-07 ***      
                idAustria         -1.0278e-01  1.2795e-02  -8.0331 5.800e-15 ***      
                idBelgium         -7.4178e-02  9.3025e-03  -7.9740 8.920e-15 ***      
                idCanada           5.7156e-02  9.6360e-03   5.9315 5.305e-09 ***      
                idDenmark         -1.2313e-01  1.6594e-02  -7.4202 4.456e-13 ***      
                idFinland         -7.5375e-02  1.0124e-02  -7.4451 3.755e-13 ***      
                idFrance           4.8287e-02  8.2430e-03   5.8580 8.064e-09 ***      
                idGermany          5.5335e-02  9.8191e-03   5.6354 2.790e-08 ***      
                idGreece          -9.3163e-02  1.3580e-02  -6.8602 1.854e-11 ***      
                idIreland         -1.4953e-01  2.1369e-02  -6.9973 7.601e-12 ***      
                idItaly            1.8422e-02  5.1369e-03   3.5863 0.0003652 ***      
                idJapan            9.9465e-02  1.4935e-02   6.6600 6.642e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands     -5.4407e-02  7.3964e-03  -7.3560 6.912e-13 ***      
                idNewZealand      -1.2994e-01  1.5923e-02  -8.1605 2.276e-15 ***      
                idPortugal        -1.0877e-01  1.4794e-02  -7.3523 7.089e-13 ***      
                idSpain           -1.2125e-02  6.8274e-03  -1.7759 0.0762969 .        
                idSweden          -4.6842e-02  5.2900e-03  -8.8548 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -1.0063e-01  1.2100e-02  -8.3160 7.155e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    2.1141e-02  6.1830e-03   3.4192 0.0006744 ***      
                idUnitedStates     2.0707e-01  2.7178e-02   7.6192 1.121e-13 ***      
                time1991           4.1221e-01  9.5730e-02   4.3059 1.968e-05 ***      
                time1992           3.8852e-01  1.0036e-01   3.8714 0.0001212 ***      
                time1993           3.8174e-01  9.6097e-02   3.9724 8.059e-05 ***      
                time1994           3.5623e-01  8.6666e-02   4.1104 4.552e-05 ***      
                time1995           3.5375e-01  8.1499e-02   4.3405 1.692e-05 ***      
                time1996           3.3858e-01  8.3977e-02   4.0318 6.315e-05 ***      
                time1997           2.9847e-01  7.3144e-02   4.0805 5.158e-05 ***      
                time1998           2.9064e-01  5.8857e-02   4.9381 1.048e-06 ***      
                time1999           2.4115e-01  5.0327e-02   4.7917 2.129e-06 ***      
                time2000           1.9304e-01  4.3828e-02   4.4045 1.274e-05 ***      
                time2001           1.8456e-01  3.8902e-02   4.7441 2.672e-06 ***      
                time2002           1.6282e-01  3.5672e-02   4.5644 6.181e-06 ***      
                time2003           1.4892e-01  3.5634e-02   4.1791 3.403e-05 ***      
                time2004           1.2409e-01  2.9589e-02   4.1939 3.195e-05 ***      
                time2005           1.1530e-01  2.0345e-02   5.6671 2.343e-08 ***      
                time2006           8.7844e-02  1.6008e-02   5.4876 6.223e-08 ***      
                time2007           7.3537e-02  1.5566e-02   4.7241 2.937e-06 ***      
                time2008           5.9717e-02  1.7248e-02   3.4622 0.0005773 ***      
                time2009           5.9656e-02  2.8304e-02   2.1077 0.0355113 *        
                time2010           1.2698e-01  1.8853e-02   6.7352 4.126e-11 ***      
                time2011           4.3560e-02  1.5309e-02   2.8455 0.0045995 **       
                time2012           5.8372e-02  1.1618e-02   5.0242 6.844e-07 ***      
                time2013           2.9678e-02  1.2012e-02   2.4707 0.0137859 *        
                time2014          -9.4654e-03  1.0320e-02  -0.9172 0.3594353          
                time2015           2.2485e-02  6.8585e-03   3.2785 0.0011094 **       
                time2016           3.4304e-02  6.3182e-03   5.4294 8.492e-08 ***      
                iis13             -5.4440e-02  1.5369e-02  -3.5422 0.0004304 ***      
                iis19              5.1238e-02  1.5379e-02   3.3317 0.0009211 ***      
                iis114             5.0170e-02  1.5387e-02   3.2605 0.0011807 **       
                iis171             8.6688e-02  1.6897e-02   5.1304 4.012e-07 ***      
                iis187             4.7580e-02  1.5368e-02   3.0960 0.0020614 **       
                iis268            -8.5204e-02  1.5491e-02  -5.5003 5.811e-08 ***      
                iis271            -6.7155e-02  1.5446e-02  -4.3477 1.639e-05 ***      
                iis345             5.0982e-02  1.5375e-02   3.3158 0.0009739 ***      
                iis600            -7.3710e-02  1.5361e-02  -4.7986 2.060e-06 ***      
                fesisAustria.2001  1.8161e-02  5.8640e-03   3.0970 0.0020544 **       
                fesisDenmark.1997 -2.8366e-02  7.1337e-03  -3.9764 7.930e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2020  4.5402e-02  1.1158e-02   4.0690 5.413e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005 -3.4500e-02  8.5762e-03  -4.0228 6.555e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2010  3.5214e-02  8.7366e-03   4.0306 6.346e-05 ***      
                fesisGreece.2017  -3.3286e-02  7.4541e-03  -4.4655 9.694e-06 ***      
                fesisIreland.2009 -3.8285e-02  9.5898e-03  -3.9922 7.432e-05 ***      
                fesisIreland.2012  5.0606e-02  9.9614e-03   5.0802 5.169e-07 ***      
                fesisSpain.1997    2.5144e-02  7.3027e-03   3.4430 0.0006189 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df  p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   10.134  1 0.001455 **       
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 11.730  1 0.000615 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.01473      
                R-squared           0.99988      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  1770.04298      

w. ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 18:08:53 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  8.0957e-01  1.5336e-01   5.2789 1.876e-07 ***      
                lpop                     1.7279e-01  5.4432e-02   3.1744 0.0015860 **       
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.0353e-02  2.9126e-03  -3.5546 0.0004112 ***      
                hdd                      6.1124e-05  7.7682e-06   7.8685 1.927e-14 ***      
                cdd                      1.0646e-04  2.2043e-05   4.8299 1.775e-06 ***      
                EU_ETS_05                5.1670e-02  8.4246e-03   6.1332 1.651e-09 ***      
                EU_ETS_08               -2.8256e-02  9.0802e-03  -3.1119 0.0019559 **       
                EU_ETS_13                6.3013e-03  7.2323e-03   0.8713 0.3839858          
                idAustria               -8.8103e-01  4.2015e-02 -20.9694 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.8685e-01  3.0234e-02 -19.4106 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 7.8531e-01  3.5509e-02  22.1157 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.1247e+00  5.8279e-02 -19.2989 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.6530e-01  6.2654e-02  -7.4265 4.296e-13 ***      
                idFrance                 4.2205e-01  5.5005e-02   7.6729 7.742e-14 ***      
                idGermany                5.4052e-01  6.7899e-02   7.9606 9.913e-15 ***      
                idGreece                -1.0108e+00  2.5633e-02 -39.4335 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -1.5421e+00  6.8646e-02 -22.4646 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  4.6152e-02  5.1500e-02   0.8962 0.3705574          
                idJapan                  9.1984e-01  8.1865e-02  11.2361 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNetherlands           -5.5177e-01  2.0328e-02 -27.1438 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.5724e-01  6.6804e-02 -11.3352 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.1172e+00  2.8017e-02 -39.8745 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -1.1562e-01  4.3145e-02  -2.6799 0.0075859 **       
                idSweden                -5.5683e-02  4.2126e-02  -1.3218 0.1867808          
                idSwitzerland           -9.8635e-01  5.2027e-02 -18.9585 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          2.2425e-01  5.3540e-02   4.1884 3.274e-05 ***      
                idUnitedStates           1.8557e+00  1.1567e-01  16.0430 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                -1.2279e+01  2.1767e+00  -5.6410 2.713e-08 ***      
                time1991                -1.2270e+01  2.1767e+00  -5.6371 2.770e-08 ***      
                time1992                -1.2256e+01  2.1766e+00  -5.6309 2.867e-08 ***      
                time1993                -1.2250e+01  2.1767e+00  -5.6278 2.916e-08 ***      
                time1994                -1.2232e+01  2.1769e+00  -5.6190 3.059e-08 ***      
                time1995                -1.2209e+01  2.1769e+00  -5.6087 3.237e-08 ***      
                time1996                -1.2196e+01  2.1766e+00  -5.6032 3.335e-08 ***      
                time1997                -1.2177e+01  2.1763e+00  -5.5954 3.481e-08 ***      
                time1998                -1.2158e+01  2.1763e+00  -5.5864 3.655e-08 ***      
                time1999                -1.2140e+01  2.1758e+00  -5.5796 3.793e-08 ***      
                time2000                -1.2108e+01  2.1756e+00  -5.5655 4.096e-08 ***      
                time2001                -1.2126e+01  2.1755e+00  -5.5739 3.913e-08 ***      
                time2002                -1.2106e+01  2.1755e+00  -5.5645 4.117e-08 ***      
                time2003                -1.2111e+01  2.1758e+00  -5.5662 4.081e-08 ***      
                time2004                -1.2077e+01  2.1754e+00  -5.5514 4.421e-08 ***      
                time2005                -1.2106e+01  2.1747e+00  -5.5670 4.063e-08 ***      
                time2006                -1.2101e+01  2.1747e+00  -5.5643 4.122e-08 ***      
                time2007                -1.2089e+01  2.1745e+00  -5.5593 4.236e-08 ***      
                time2008                -1.2076e+01  2.1745e+00  -5.5534 4.373e-08 ***      
                time2009                -1.2113e+01  2.1750e+00  -5.5694 4.011e-08 ***      
                time2010                -1.2107e+01  2.1749e+00  -5.5666 4.071e-08 ***      
                time2011                -1.2104e+01  2.1749e+00  -5.5654 4.097e-08 ***      
                time2012                -1.2119e+01  2.1750e+00  -5.5721 3.951e-08 ***      
                time2013                -1.2128e+01  2.1748e+00  -5.5766 3.856e-08 ***      
                time2014                -1.2129e+01  2.1748e+00  -5.5770 3.848e-08 ***      
                time2015                -1.2138e+01  2.1748e+00  -5.5811 3.762e-08 ***      
                time2016                -1.2136e+01  2.1748e+00  -5.5804 3.777e-08 ***      
                time2017                -1.2137e+01  2.1747e+00  -5.5812 3.761e-08 ***      
                time2018                -1.2144e+01  2.1748e+00  -5.5842 3.700e-08 ***      
                time2019                -1.2156e+01  2.1747e+00  -5.5898 3.589e-08 ***      
                time2020                -1.2158e+01  2.1753e+00  -5.5890 3.604e-08 ***      
                time2021                -1.2155e+01  2.1748e+00  -5.5891 3.602e-08 ***      
                iis204                  -1.3545e-01  2.9131e-02  -4.6495 4.174e-06 ***      
                iis205                  -1.3912e-01  2.9101e-02  -4.7806 2.248e-06 ***      
                iis206                  -1.0431e-01  2.8953e-02  -3.6028 0.0003435 ***      
                iis207                  -1.1772e-01  2.8974e-02  -4.0628 5.557e-05 ***      
                iis208                  -1.1044e-01  2.8992e-02  -3.8091 0.0001552 ***      
                iis209                  -7.5640e-02  2.9051e-02  -2.6037 0.0094716 **       
                iis210                  -8.0608e-02  2.9058e-02  -2.7741 0.0057247 **       
                iis436                  -1.0748e-01  2.7972e-02  -3.8423 0.0001362 ***      
                iis437                  -8.6132e-02  2.7852e-02  -3.0925 0.0020857 **       
                iis465                   1.8907e-01  2.7658e-02   6.8361 2.176e-11 ***      
                iis466                   1.6426e-01  2.7570e-02   5.9579 4.573e-09 ***      
                iis467                   1.5047e-01  2.7565e-02   5.4586 7.281e-08 ***      
                iis468                   1.3421e-01  2.7521e-02   4.8766 1.416e-06 ***      
                iis469                   8.3247e-02  2.7556e-02   3.0210 0.0026366 **       
                iis470                   7.6817e-02  2.7515e-02   2.7919 0.0054235 **       
                fesisCanada.1999        -8.3071e-02  1.0941e-02  -7.5926 1.360e-13 ***      
                fesisAustria.2008        5.0338e-02  1.6378e-02   3.0735 0.0022207 **       
                fesisAustria.2011        7.8772e-02  1.6978e-02   4.6397 4.370e-06 ***      
                fesisGermany.1995       -9.8267e-02  1.3082e-02  -7.5116 2.388e-13 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1997       -1.0908e-01  1.4002e-02  -7.7907 3.360e-14 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004       -9.5643e-02  1.1792e-02  -8.1106 3.318e-15 ***      
                fesisSpain.2001          1.5951e-01  1.4574e-02  10.9453 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -4.7119e-02  1.3619e-02  -3.4597 0.0005828 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2006 -8.2678e-02  1.4590e-02  -5.6667 2.354e-08 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2013 -8.6817e-02  1.3278e-02  -6.5385 1.425e-10 ***      
                fesisGreece.2001         1.6014e-01  1.2213e-02  13.1119 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2010         3.7836e-02  1.2543e-02   3.0165 0.0026758 **       
                fesisIreland.1997        9.9528e-02  1.5317e-02   6.4980 1.831e-10 ***      
                fesisPortugal.1999       1.5581e-01  1.4179e-02  10.9890 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2006       1.2245e-01  1.2132e-02  10.0932 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisSweden.2004        -1.5634e-01  1.1354e-02 -13.7687 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2001      8.2598e-02  1.1045e-02   7.4783 3.008e-13 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1999    -6.3114e-02  1.2532e-02  -5.0362 6.456e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   189.75  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 113.65  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.02517      
                R-squared           0.99967      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  1494.41553      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_elec_demand_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 18:08:36 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                9.2739e-01  9.2133e-03 100.6576 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb            1.9316e-01  7.2198e-02   2.6755 0.0076843 **       
                lpop              -1.0155e+00  2.6207e-01  -3.8749 0.0001195 ***      
                lgdp_wb_sq         1.6028e-02  3.4094e-03   4.7011 3.273e-06 ***      
                hdd                4.4203e-06  1.8289e-05   0.2417 0.8091072          
                cdd               -1.3747e-04  2.6104e-05  -5.2662 2.000e-07 ***      
                idAustria         -1.0278e-01  1.2795e-02  -8.0331 5.800e-15 ***      
                idBelgium         -7.4178e-02  9.3025e-03  -7.9740 8.920e-15 ***      
                idCanada           5.7156e-02  9.6360e-03   5.9315 5.305e-09 ***      
                idDenmark         -1.2313e-01  1.6594e-02  -7.4202 4.456e-13 ***      
                idFinland         -7.5375e-02  1.0124e-02  -7.4451 3.755e-13 ***      
                idFrance           4.8287e-02  8.2430e-03   5.8580 8.064e-09 ***      
                idGermany          5.5335e-02  9.8191e-03   5.6354 2.790e-08 ***      
                idGreece          -9.3163e-02  1.3580e-02  -6.8602 1.854e-11 ***      
                idIreland         -1.4953e-01  2.1369e-02  -6.9973 7.601e-12 ***      
                idItaly            1.8422e-02  5.1369e-03   3.5863 0.0003652 ***      
                idJapan            9.9465e-02  1.4935e-02   6.6600 6.642e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands     -5.4407e-02  7.3964e-03  -7.3560 6.912e-13 ***      
                idNewZealand      -1.2994e-01  1.5923e-02  -8.1605 2.276e-15 ***      
                idPortugal        -1.0877e-01  1.4794e-02  -7.3523 7.089e-13 ***      
                idSpain           -1.2125e-02  6.8274e-03  -1.7759 0.0762969 .        
                idSweden          -4.6842e-02  5.2900e-03  -8.8548 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -1.0063e-01  1.2100e-02  -8.3160 7.155e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    2.1141e-02  6.1830e-03   3.4192 0.0006744 ***      
                idUnitedStates     2.0707e-01  2.7178e-02   7.6192 1.121e-13 ***      
                time1991           4.1221e-01  9.5730e-02   4.3059 1.968e-05 ***      
                time1992           3.8852e-01  1.0036e-01   3.8714 0.0001212 ***      
                time1993           3.8174e-01  9.6097e-02   3.9724 8.059e-05 ***      
                time1994           3.5623e-01  8.6666e-02   4.1104 4.552e-05 ***      
                time1995           3.5375e-01  8.1499e-02   4.3405 1.692e-05 ***      
                time1996           3.3858e-01  8.3977e-02   4.0318 6.315e-05 ***      
                time1997           2.9847e-01  7.3144e-02   4.0805 5.158e-05 ***      
                time1998           2.9064e-01  5.8857e-02   4.9381 1.048e-06 ***      
                time1999           2.4115e-01  5.0327e-02   4.7917 2.129e-06 ***      
                time2000           1.9304e-01  4.3828e-02   4.4045 1.274e-05 ***      
                time2001           1.8456e-01  3.8902e-02   4.7441 2.672e-06 ***      
                time2002           1.6282e-01  3.5672e-02   4.5644 6.181e-06 ***      
                time2003           1.4892e-01  3.5634e-02   4.1791 3.403e-05 ***      
                time2004           1.2409e-01  2.9589e-02   4.1939 3.195e-05 ***      
                time2005           1.1530e-01  2.0345e-02   5.6671 2.343e-08 ***      
                time2006           8.7844e-02  1.6008e-02   5.4876 6.223e-08 ***      
                time2007           7.3537e-02  1.5566e-02   4.7241 2.937e-06 ***      
                time2008           5.9717e-02  1.7248e-02   3.4622 0.0005773 ***      
                time2009           5.9656e-02  2.8304e-02   2.1077 0.0355113 *        
                time2010           1.2698e-01  1.8853e-02   6.7352 4.126e-11 ***      
                time2011           4.3560e-02  1.5309e-02   2.8455 0.0045995 **       
                time2012           5.8372e-02  1.1618e-02   5.0242 6.844e-07 ***      
                time2013           2.9678e-02  1.2012e-02   2.4707 0.0137859 *        
                time2014          -9.4654e-03  1.0320e-02  -0.9172 0.3594353          
                time2015           2.2485e-02  6.8585e-03   3.2785 0.0011094 **       
                time2016           3.4304e-02  6.3182e-03   5.4294 8.492e-08 ***      
                iis13             -5.4440e-02  1.5369e-02  -3.5422 0.0004304 ***      
                iis19              5.1238e-02  1.5379e-02   3.3317 0.0009211 ***      
                iis114             5.0170e-02  1.5387e-02   3.2605 0.0011807 **       
                iis171             8.6688e-02  1.6897e-02   5.1304 4.012e-07 ***      
                iis187             4.7580e-02  1.5368e-02   3.0960 0.0020614 **       
                iis268            -8.5204e-02  1.5491e-02  -5.5003 5.811e-08 ***      
                iis271            -6.7155e-02  1.5446e-02  -4.3477 1.639e-05 ***      
                iis345             5.0982e-02  1.5375e-02   3.3158 0.0009739 ***      
                iis600            -7.3710e-02  1.5361e-02  -4.7986 2.060e-06 ***      
                fesisAustria.2001  1.8161e-02  5.8640e-03   3.0970 0.0020544 **       
                fesisDenmark.1997 -2.8366e-02  7.1337e-03  -3.9764 7.930e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2020  4.5402e-02  1.1158e-02   4.0690 5.413e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005 -3.4500e-02  8.5762e-03  -4.0228 6.555e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2010  3.5214e-02  8.7366e-03   4.0306 6.346e-05 ***      
                fesisGreece.2017  -3.3286e-02  7.4541e-03  -4.4655 9.694e-06 ***      
                fesisIreland.2009 -3.8285e-02  9.5898e-03  -3.9922 7.432e-05 ***      
                fesisIreland.2012  5.0606e-02  9.9614e-03   5.0802 5.169e-07 ***      
                fesisSpain.1997    2.5144e-02  7.3027e-03   3.4430 0.0006189 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df  p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   10.134  1 0.001455 **       
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 11.730  1 0.000615 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.01473      
                R-squared           0.99988      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  1770.04298      

Emissions

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:34:22 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.8316e-01  5.2252e-01   0.7333 0.4636822          
                lpop                     2.5710e-02  2.0058e-01   0.1282 0.8980504          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.9737e-03  1.0103e-02  -0.1954 0.8451842          
                hdd                      1.8635e-04  2.8679e-05   6.4980 1.782e-10 ***      
                cdd                      2.9071e-04  8.1415e-05   3.5707 0.0003862 ***      
                idAustria               -2.3864e+00  1.5702e-01 -15.1982 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.6929e+00  1.1453e-01 -14.7813 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -9.4728e-01  1.2851e-01  -7.3713 6.000e-13 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.4402e+00  2.1883e-01  -6.5816 1.059e-10 ***      
                idFinland               -2.0095e+00  2.3713e-01  -8.4743 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -1.6448e+00  1.9577e-01  -8.4016 3.543e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.4730e-01  2.3215e-01   0.6345 0.5260232          
                idGreece                -1.1625e+00  9.5293e-02 -12.1987 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.0252e+00  2.5858e-01  -7.8319 2.372e-14 ***      
                idItaly                 -5.7817e-01  1.8147e-01  -3.1860 0.0015219 **       
                idJapan                  2.7138e-01  2.9279e-01   0.9269 0.3543760          
                idNetherlands           -1.1563e+00  7.5140e-02 -15.3890 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -2.9421e+00  2.5504e-01 -11.5357 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.6605e+00  9.9377e-02 -16.7086 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -8.1602e-01  1.5359e-01  -5.3129 1.552e-07 ***      
                idSweden                -2.9349e+00  1.5369e-01 -19.0959 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.3318e+00  1.9705e-01 -21.9826 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -1.2165e-01  1.9684e-01  -0.6180 0.5368090          
                idUnitedStates           1.5255e+00  3.9093e-01   3.9021 0.0001068 ***      
                time1990                 2.1694e+00  8.1484e+00   0.2662 0.7901524          
                time1991                 2.1838e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2680 0.7887960          
                time1992                 2.2095e+00  8.1487e+00   0.2712 0.7863733          
                time1993                 2.1487e+00  8.1490e+00   0.2637 0.7921204          
                time1994                 2.1748e+00  8.1497e+00   0.2668 0.7896820          
                time1995                 2.2014e+00  8.1496e+00   0.2701 0.7871600          
                time1996                 2.2090e+00  8.1486e+00   0.2711 0.7864221          
                time1997                 2.2281e+00  8.1479e+00   0.2735 0.7845981          
                time1998                 2.2573e+00  8.1477e+00   0.2770 0.7818488          
                time1999                 2.2759e+00  8.1471e+00   0.2794 0.7800766          
                time2000                 2.2820e+00  8.1463e+00   0.2801 0.7794792          
                time2001                 2.2923e+00  8.1462e+00   0.2814 0.7785109          
                time2002                 2.3427e+00  8.1465e+00   0.2876 0.7737849          
                time2003                 2.3337e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2864 0.7746467          
                time2004                 2.3568e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2893 0.7724218          
                time2005                 2.3489e+00  8.1455e+00   0.2884 0.7731728          
                time2006                 2.3518e+00  8.1453e+00   0.2887 0.7728920          
                time2007                 2.3578e+00  8.1448e+00   0.2895 0.7723198          
                time2008                 2.2859e+00  8.1450e+00   0.2807 0.7790799          
                time2009                 2.2088e+00  8.1472e+00   0.2711 0.7864052          
                time2010                 2.1712e+00  8.1467e+00   0.2665 0.7899465          
                time2011                 2.1751e+00  8.1475e+00   0.2670 0.7895961          
                time2012                 2.1486e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2637 0.7921085          
                time2013                 2.0917e+00  8.1478e+00   0.2567 0.7974853          
                time2014                 2.0557e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2523 0.8009054          
                time2015                 2.0169e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2475 0.8045914          
                time2016                 2.0072e+00  8.1483e+00   0.2463 0.8055092          
                time2017                 2.0020e+00  8.1481e+00   0.2457 0.8060029          
                time2018                 1.9131e+00  8.1482e+00   0.2348 0.8144584          
                time2019                 1.8407e+00  8.1480e+00   0.2259 0.8213575          
                time2020                 1.7854e+00  8.1511e+00   0.2190 0.8267030          
                time2021                 1.7780e+00  8.1488e+00   0.2182 0.8273578          
                iis590                  -4.0171e-01  1.0596e-01  -3.7910 0.0001661 ***      
                iis591                  -4.3188e-01  1.0593e-01  -4.0772 5.210e-05 ***      
                iis592                  -3.3574e-01  1.0594e-01  -3.1692 0.0016110 **       
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.7149e-01  3.7420e-02  -7.2553 1.322e-12 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2006    1.0711e-01  3.8828e-02   2.7586 0.0059920 **       
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.4196e-01  5.7791e-02   5.9173 5.662e-09 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.2142e-01  5.5455e-02  -5.7961 1.126e-08 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004       -1.5421e-01  5.6578e-02  -2.7256 0.0066162 **       
                fesisDenmark.2012       -3.8209e-01  5.1375e-02  -7.4373 3.812e-13 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.4894e-01  5.0376e-02  -4.9415 1.021e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1137e-01  4.6523e-02 -10.9919 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisIreland.2004       -2.1441e-01  4.6932e-02  -4.5685 6.028e-06 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2014    2.5604e-01  4.0789e-02   6.2771 6.853e-10 ***      
                fesisJapan.2011          4.7526e-01  3.9446e-02  12.0482 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisAustralia.2008      2.2597e-01  4.0164e-02   5.6262 2.896e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.5726e-01  4.9717e-02   9.1974 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   114.542  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  42.801  1  6.06e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09648      
                R-squared          0.99675      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  624.46953      
AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:35:03 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

w. ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:44:29 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  3.0472e-01  6.9022e-01   0.4415 0.6590340          
                lpop                     7.0025e-03  2.3817e-01   0.0294 0.9765553          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -2.6230e-03  1.3581e-02  -0.1931 0.8469188          
                hdd                      1.8510e-04  2.6431e-05   7.0031 7.268e-12 ***      
                cdd                      3.2576e-04  7.5382e-05   4.3215 1.837e-05 ***      
                EU_ETS_05               -1.0634e-01  3.0516e-02  -3.4847 0.0005316 ***      
                EU_ETS_08               -5.1456e-02  3.1451e-02  -1.6361 0.1023860          
                EU_ETS_13               -1.1108e-01  2.9132e-02  -3.8132 0.0001526 ***      
                idAustria               -2.4749e+00  1.7047e-01 -14.5184 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -1.7276e+00  1.2065e-01 -14.3191 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -8.0021e-01  1.3457e-01  -5.9466 4.847e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.5269e+00  2.4721e-01  -6.1766 1.267e-09 ***      
                idFinland               -2.0807e+00  2.5882e-01  -8.0392 5.479e-15 ***      
                idFrance                -1.5058e+00  2.3453e-01  -6.4207 2.915e-10 ***      
                idGermany                3.8124e-01  2.8529e-01   1.3363 0.1819854          
                idGreece                -1.2568e+00  8.8849e-02 -14.1451 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -2.2357e+00  2.8486e-01  -7.8482 2.185e-14 ***      
                idItaly                 -3.7940e-01  2.2388e-01  -1.6947 0.0907005 .        
                idJapan                  5.2805e-01  3.6052e-01   1.4647 0.1435754          
                idNetherlands           -1.2009e+00  8.0079e-02 -14.9971 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -3.1315e+00  2.8697e-01 -10.9125 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.7776e+00  9.2664e-02 -19.1839 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -8.0014e-01  1.8417e-01  -4.3447 1.659e-05 ***      
                idSweden                -2.9597e+00  1.6410e-01 -18.0353 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -4.3325e+00  2.2042e-01 -19.6556 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          7.8825e-02  2.3034e-01   0.3422 0.7323222          
                idUnitedStates           1.9761e+00  4.9218e-01   4.0149 6.765e-05 ***      
                time1990                 5.0344e+00  1.0039e+01   0.5015 0.6162139          
                time1991                 5.0506e+00  1.0038e+01   0.5031 0.6150768          
                time1992                 5.0789e+00  1.0039e+01   0.5059 0.6130998          
                time1993                 5.0193e+00  1.0039e+01   0.5000 0.6172840          
                time1994                 5.0459e+00  1.0038e+01   0.5027 0.6154000          
                time1995                 5.0687e+00  1.0038e+01   0.5049 0.6138061          
                time1996                 5.0815e+00  1.0037e+01   0.5063 0.6128642          
                time1997                 5.1016e+00  1.0036e+01   0.5084 0.6114082          
                time1998                 5.1339e+00  1.0034e+01   0.5116 0.6091101          
                time1999                 5.1446e+00  1.0033e+01   0.5128 0.6083299          
                time2000                 5.1563e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5140 0.6074572          
                time2001                 5.1651e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5149 0.6068200          
                time2002                 5.2180e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5202 0.6031404          
                time2003                 5.2087e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5193 0.6037753          
                time2004                 5.2194e+00  1.0030e+01   0.5204 0.6029939          
                time2005                 5.2968e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5280 0.5977349          
                time2006                 5.3080e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5291 0.5969298          
                time2007                 5.3191e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5303 0.5961278          
                time2008                 5.2904e+00  1.0031e+01   0.5274 0.5981088          
                time2009                 5.2084e+00  1.0034e+01   0.5191 0.6039044          
                time2010                 5.1729e+00  1.0032e+01   0.5156 0.6063282          
                time2011                 5.2191e+00  1.0033e+01   0.5202 0.6031269          
                time2012                 5.1491e+00  1.0034e+01   0.5132 0.6080444          
                time2013                 5.1834e+00  1.0029e+01   0.5168 0.6054905          
                time2014                 5.1473e+00  1.0030e+01   0.5132 0.6080114          
                time2015                 5.0970e+00  1.0029e+01   0.5082 0.6114856          
                time2016                 5.0756e+00  1.0029e+01   0.5061 0.6129874          
                time2017                 5.0762e+00  1.0028e+01   0.5062 0.6129051          
                time2018                 4.9780e+00  1.0027e+01   0.4965 0.6197585          
                time2019                 4.9099e+00  1.0026e+01   0.4897 0.6245328          
                time2020                 4.8700e+00  1.0031e+01   0.4855 0.6275114          
                time2021                 4.8697e+00  1.0027e+01   0.4857 0.6274064          
                iis202                  -2.4873e-01  9.5713e-02  -2.5987 0.0096057 **       
                iis590                  -4.3271e-01  9.5762e-02  -4.5186 7.612e-06 ***      
                iis591                  -4.8115e-01  9.5780e-02  -5.0235 6.853e-07 ***      
                iis592                  -3.8589e-01  9.5742e-02  -4.0306 6.342e-05 ***      
                fesisCanada.2005        -1.7701e-01  3.7803e-02  -4.6825 3.567e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2005  -1.7954e-01  4.9123e-02  -3.6548 0.0002818 ***      
                fesisAustria.2008        1.0137e-01  3.7409e-02   2.7098 0.0069403 **       
                fesisAustria.2017        1.9197e-01  5.0608e-02   3.7933 0.0001650 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2001       -2.0302e-01  3.4158e-02  -5.9435 4.934e-09 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.0153e-01  5.1736e-02   5.8283 9.500e-09 ***      
                fesisGermany.2012        1.4549e-01  4.1249e-02   3.5272 0.0004547 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1999       -3.6491e-01  4.0143e-02  -9.0902 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2011       -3.4411e-01  4.3048e-02  -7.9935 7.645e-15 ***      
                fesisSpain.1999          1.5692e-01  3.8208e-02   4.1070 4.613e-05 ***      
                fesisFrance.2005         1.7906e-01  3.4570e-02   5.1797 3.115e-07 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -1.9991e-01  4.7528e-02  -4.2062 3.027e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3628e-01  4.4028e-02  -9.9092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.1995    1.2940e-01  4.5466e-02   2.8460 0.0045902 **       
                fesisNetherlands.2014    3.1089e-01  3.8997e-02   7.9721 8.932e-15 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2015       2.7015e-01  4.6629e-02   5.7937 1.155e-08 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2020      -4.0725e-01  7.4996e-02  -5.4303 8.425e-08 ***      
                fesisSweden.2016         2.0980e-01  4.2252e-02   4.9655 9.135e-07 ***      
                fesisJapan.2012          3.2765e-01  4.5664e-02   7.1753 2.321e-12 ***      
                fesisAustralia.1999      1.3380e-01  4.1837e-02   3.1982 0.0014618 **       
                fesisNewZealand.1997     4.8442e-01  4.6065e-02  10.5161 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.2013    -2.3902e-01  4.4641e-02  -5.3544 1.259e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   61.353  1 4.774e-15 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 16.264  1 5.509e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08704      
                R-squared          0.99742      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  696.86467      
AR = 1

                Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Nov 28 12:45:23 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      7.5175e-01  2.2181e-02  33.8912 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  5.6781e-01  3.8509e-01   1.4745 0.1409309          
                lpop                    -1.6130e+00  1.3830e+00  -1.1663 0.2439960          
                lgdp_wb_sq               1.9816e-02  1.7928e-02   1.1053 0.2695106          
                hdd                     -1.1705e-04  9.7752e-05  -1.1974 0.2316729          
                cdd                     -5.5597e-04  1.3877e-04  -4.0063 7.024e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -6.3176e-01  5.8681e-02 -10.7660 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.4086e-01  5.0037e-02 -10.8092 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                -1.3804e-01  2.2335e-02  -6.1805 1.253e-09 ***      
                idDenmark               -6.2118e-01  5.2627e-02 -11.8036 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.8652e-01  5.1442e-02  -9.4577 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                -3.6841e-01  3.6179e-02 -10.1830 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                1.3147e-01  2.4002e-02   5.4772 6.607e-08 ***      
                idGreece                -4.1069e-01  3.9526e-02 -10.3904 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -6.6552e-01  6.1540e-02 -10.8144 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.0204e-01  2.0919e-02  -4.8779 1.410e-06 ***      
                idJapan                  1.9067e-01  2.8861e-02   6.6066 9.369e-11 ***      
                idNetherlands           -2.9494e-01  3.2397e-02  -9.1040 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -7.9872e-01  1.0146e-01  -7.8723 1.891e-14 ***      
                idPortugal              -5.4502e-01  5.4465e-02 -10.0067 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -2.0901e-01  2.6474e-02  -7.8949 1.607e-14 ***      
                idSweden                -7.5812e-01  6.7925e-02 -11.1611 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSwitzerland           -1.0421e+00  9.5275e-02 -10.9375 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.5943e-02  2.0967e-02  -1.2373 0.2165155          
                idUnitedStates           6.0911e-01  5.8970e-02  10.3291 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991                 6.8053e-01  5.0467e-01   1.3485 0.1780665          
                time1992                 6.1693e-01  5.2970e-01   1.1647 0.2446586          
                time1993                 5.9818e-01  5.0715e-01   1.1795 0.2387159          
                time1994                 5.9524e-01  4.5720e-01   1.3019 0.1934943          
                time1995                 6.0853e-01  4.2992e-01   1.4154 0.1575129          
                time1996                 5.9198e-01  4.4349e-01   1.3348 0.1824910          
                time1997                 4.9259e-01  3.8624e-01   1.2754 0.2027228          
                time1998                 4.4824e-01  3.1015e-01   1.4452 0.1489657          
                time1999                 3.8630e-01  2.6544e-01   1.4553 0.1461543          
                time2000                 2.9566e-01  2.3170e-01   1.2761 0.2024795          
                time2001                 3.2250e-01  2.0532e-01   1.5707 0.1168332          
                time2002                 3.3966e-01  1.8858e-01   1.8012 0.0722278 .        
                time2003                 3.2625e-01  1.8875e-01   1.7285 0.0844677 .        
                time2004                 2.2085e-01  1.5696e-01   1.4070 0.1599946          
                time2005                 2.7055e-01  1.0765e-01   2.5132 0.0122524 *        
                time2006                 1.4223e-01  8.4842e-02   1.6764 0.0942343 .        
                time2007                 1.7231e-01  8.2804e-02   2.0810 0.0379048 *        
                time2008                 1.2249e-01  9.1859e-02   1.3334 0.1829439          
                time2009                 1.4885e-01  1.5000e-01   0.9923 0.3214714          
                time2010                 2.0502e-01  9.9568e-02   2.0591 0.0399593 *        
                time2011                 9.7624e-02  8.0935e-02   1.2062 0.2282598          
                time2012                 1.1967e-01  6.1272e-02   1.9531 0.0513195 .        
                time2013                 4.1818e-02  6.3674e-02   0.6567 0.5116212          
                time2014                -2.5925e-02  5.5002e-02  -0.4713 0.6375812          
                time2015                 5.0250e-02  3.6422e-02   1.3797 0.1682551          
                time2016                 3.1824e-02  3.3353e-02   0.9541 0.3404339          
                iis125                   4.0274e-01  8.0939e-02   4.9758 8.725e-07 ***      
                iis127                   2.6002e-01  8.1090e-02   3.2065 0.0014222 **       
                iis128                   2.8400e-01  8.1358e-02   3.4907 0.0005208 ***      
                iis130                   4.7920e-01  8.1655e-02   5.8687 7.633e-09 ***      
                iis137                   2.3442e-01  8.0628e-02   2.9074 0.0037932 **       
                iis140                   3.6872e-01  8.0775e-02   4.5648 6.184e-06 ***      
                iis149                  -2.6431e-01  8.0931e-02  -3.2659 0.0011596 **       
                iis151                  -2.8779e-01  8.1168e-02  -3.5456 0.0004254 ***      
                iis153                  -3.7375e-01  8.1759e-02  -4.5714 6.000e-06 ***      
                iis170                  -3.2264e-01  8.1644e-02  -3.9518 8.778e-05 ***      
                iis171                   4.2612e-01  8.1615e-02   5.2211 2.534e-07 ***      
                iis194                   2.6611e-01  8.0299e-02   3.3140 0.0009809 ***      
                iis410                   2.6767e-01  8.1176e-02   3.2974 0.0010396 **       
                iis440                  -2.8560e-01  8.0757e-02  -3.5365 0.0004400 ***      
                iis454                  -3.3121e-01  8.0460e-02  -4.1165 4.443e-05 ***      
                iis471                  -2.3466e-01  8.0512e-02  -2.9145 0.0037085 **       
                iis502                   3.7161e-01  8.0578e-02   4.6118 4.979e-06 ***      
                iis516                   2.4231e-01  8.0320e-02   3.0168 0.0026737 **       
                fesisFinland.2005       -7.8354e-02  2.9382e-02  -2.6667 0.0078870 **       
                fesisJapan.2010          1.2814e-01  3.0521e-02   4.1983 3.140e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993    -2.7673e-01  7.2047e-02  -3.8410 0.0001370 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996     2.6099e-01  4.9010e-02   5.3251 1.477e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019      -2.3353e-01  4.8134e-02  -4.8518 1.600e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -1.8234e-01  3.5525e-02  -5.1325 3.983e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value         
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    2.2203  1 0.136204         
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.5243  1 0.001178 **      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.07682      
                R-squared          0.99796      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  748.82217      

Exports Elec Twh

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:14:46 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 544       
                Sample: 1 to 544       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  8.9131e-01  1.5309e+00   0.5822 0.5607189          
                lpop                    -1.6472e+00  5.1205e-01  -3.2169 0.0013871 **       
                lgdp_wb_sq              -3.3140e-03  2.9496e-02  -0.1124 0.9105921          
                hdd                      9.3139e-06  6.8357e-05   0.1363 0.8916806          
                cdd                      3.7995e-04  2.0536e-04   1.8502 0.0649263 .        
                idBelgium               -1.6477e-01  1.3555e-01  -1.2156 0.2247445          
                idCanada                 2.4158e+00  5.3905e-01   4.4816 9.358e-06 ***      
                idDenmark               -8.1135e-01  1.9665e-01  -4.1258 4.384e-05 ***      
                idFinland               -2.2604e+00  2.1518e-01 -10.5045 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFrance                 3.7637e+00  8.1009e-01   4.6460 4.422e-06 ***      
                idGermany                3.4707e+00  8.9689e-01   3.8697 0.0001247 ***      
                idGreece                -1.1732e+00  2.9314e-01  -4.0023 7.309e-05 ***      
                idIreland               -2.7800e+00  3.3038e-01  -8.4144 5.005e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  9.7135e-02  8.0185e-01   0.1211 0.9036347          
                idNetherlands           -3.1033e-01  2.9258e-01  -1.0607 0.2893871          
                idPortugal              -5.5609e-01  2.6808e-01  -2.0744 0.0386003 *        
                idSpain                  1.1098e+00  7.0975e-01   1.5637 0.1185818          
                idSweden                 2.2402e-01  8.2912e-02   2.7018 0.0071498 **       
                idSwitzerland            3.1626e-01  1.7183e-01   1.8406 0.0663281 .        
                idUnitedKingdom         -3.8806e-01  7.8681e-01  -0.4932 0.6221047          
                idUnitedStates           3.1385e+00  1.3453e+00   2.3330 0.0200761 *        
                time1990                 7.2372e+00  2.2929e+01   0.3156 0.7524225          
                time1991                 7.1631e+00  2.2928e+01   0.3124 0.7548708          
                time1992                 7.2059e+00  2.2929e+01   0.3143 0.7534584          
                time1993                 7.2276e+00  2.2929e+01   0.3152 0.7527425          
                time1994                 7.2106e+00  2.2930e+01   0.3145 0.7533166          
                time1995                 7.2205e+00  2.2929e+01   0.3149 0.7529767          
                time1996                 7.3716e+00  2.2927e+01   0.3215 0.7479526          
                time1997                 7.3601e+00  2.2927e+01   0.3210 0.7483396          
                time1998                 7.3727e+00  2.2922e+01   0.3216 0.7478728          
                time1999                 7.4396e+00  2.2922e+01   0.3246 0.7456550          
                time2000                 7.4424e+00  2.2919e+01   0.3247 0.7455408          
                time2001                 7.4762e+00  2.2919e+01   0.3262 0.7444179          
                time2002                 7.5156e+00  2.2920e+01   0.3279 0.7431282          
                time2003                 7.4950e+00  2.2922e+01   0.3270 0.7438328          
                time2004                 7.5180e+00  2.2920e+01   0.3280 0.7430531          
                time2005                 7.5631e+00  2.2920e+01   0.3300 0.7415672          
                time2006                 7.6067e+00  2.2920e+01   0.3319 0.7401282          
                time2007                 7.6355e+00  2.2918e+01   0.3332 0.7391636          
                time2008                 7.6045e+00  2.2919e+01   0.3318 0.7401874          
                time2009                 7.6732e+00  2.2924e+01   0.3347 0.7379855          
                time2010                 7.7169e+00  2.2922e+01   0.3367 0.7365239          
                time2011                 7.7673e+00  2.2926e+01   0.3388 0.7349120          
                time2012                 7.7370e+00  2.2926e+01   0.3375 0.7359103          
                time2013                 7.7777e+00  2.2925e+01   0.3393 0.7345687          
                time2014                 7.8501e+00  2.2925e+01   0.3424 0.7321910          
                time2015                 7.8644e+00  2.2925e+01   0.3431 0.7317160          
                time2016                 7.8737e+00  2.2924e+01   0.3435 0.7313985          
                time2017                 7.8752e+00  2.2923e+01   0.3436 0.7313408          
                time2018                 7.7930e+00  2.2923e+01   0.3400 0.7340369          
                time2019                 7.8991e+00  2.2922e+01   0.3446 0.7305464          
                time2020                 8.0105e+00  2.2930e+01   0.3493 0.7269917          
                time2021                 7.9817e+00  2.2924e+01   0.3482 0.7278565          
                iis56                   -6.8336e-01  2.2133e-01  -3.0875 0.0021399 **       
                iis181                   8.3758e-01  2.1752e-01   3.8506 0.0001345 ***      
                iis246                   9.4987e-01  2.1823e-01   4.3526 1.659e-05 ***      
                iis247                   8.9800e-01  2.1754e-01   4.1280 4.345e-05 ***      
                iis407                  -9.2958e-01  2.2258e-01  -4.1764 3.543e-05 ***      
                iis408                  -7.6146e-01  2.2274e-01  -3.4185 0.0006855 ***      
                iis409                  -1.0844e+00  2.2262e-01  -4.8711 1.528e-06 ***      
                iis410                  -1.0492e+00  2.2241e-01  -4.7172 3.175e-06 ***      
                iis411                  -1.0646e+00  2.2244e-01  -4.7860 2.295e-06 ***      
                iis412                  -8.8475e-01  2.2279e-01  -3.9713 8.291e-05 ***      
                iis413                  -9.5900e-01  2.2445e-01  -4.2727 2.347e-05 ***      
                iis414                  -1.1305e+00  2.2304e-01  -5.0688 5.808e-07 ***      
                iis415                  -1.1745e+00  2.2227e-01  -5.2840 1.954e-07 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2011  -5.7894e-01  1.0515e-01  -5.5057 6.118e-08 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2014       -1.0630e+00  1.5641e-01  -6.7961 3.335e-11 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2016        9.1172e-01  1.7212e-01   5.2971 1.826e-07 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2008   -2.9522e-01  8.1415e-02  -3.6261 0.0003198 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2011       -2.6035e-01  8.2627e-02  -3.1509 0.0017337 **       
                fesisSpain.2004          4.5192e-01  8.1187e-02   5.5664 4.421e-08 ***      
                fesisFinland.2003        3.2350e-01  8.5670e-02   3.7761 0.0001801 ***      
                fesisFrance.2004        -5.0098e-01  7.9718e-02  -6.2844 7.633e-10 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2003  7.2571e-01  8.2767e-02   8.7682 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2014        -4.1066e-01  9.9523e-02  -4.1263 4.376e-05 ***      
                fesisIreland.1998       -4.0281e-01  1.3078e-01  -3.0801 0.0021929 **       
                fesisItaly.1999         -3.7284e-01  1.0398e-01  -3.5856 0.0003722 ***      
                fesisItaly.2007          4.5782e-01  1.1122e-01   4.1163 4.563e-05 ***      
                fesisItaly.2014          3.9350e-01  1.1223e-01   3.5063 0.0004988 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2008    7.8560e-01  9.1933e-02   8.5453 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisSweden.2006        -3.7204e-01  1.0311e-01  -3.6083 0.0003420 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012         6.0488e-01  1.1066e-01   5.4662 7.546e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   62.639  1 2.442e-15 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.181  1 9.769e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.20434      
                R-squared          0.97734      
                Log-lik.(n=544)  133.46355      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:14:40 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 527       
                Sample: 1 to 527       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                             coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                    6.8437e-01  3.0114e-02 22.7256 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                1.4659e-01  9.7106e-01  0.1510 0.8800712          
                lpop                   1.7965e+00  3.5374e+00  0.5079 0.6117831          
                lgdp_wb_sq            -4.1936e-02  4.6109e-02 -0.9095 0.3635631          
                hdd                   -3.2417e-04  2.4791e-04 -1.3076 0.1916602          
                cdd                    5.5753e-05  3.5612e-04  0.1566 0.8756617          
                idBelgium             -1.8480e-01  5.2936e-02 -3.4911 0.0005272 ***      
                idCanada               3.6666e-01  5.7901e-02  6.3326 5.719e-10 ***      
                idDenmark             -1.5192e-01  4.8528e-02 -3.1306 0.0018549 **       
                idFinland             -6.4014e-01  1.0658e-01 -6.0061 3.853e-09 ***      
                idFrance               4.4661e-01  6.4538e-02  6.9201 1.514e-11 ***      
                idGermany              3.8991e-01  5.9911e-02  6.5082 1.984e-10 ***      
                idGreece              -5.5270e-01  7.2105e-02 -7.6652 1.062e-13 ***      
                idIreland             -7.7894e-01  8.7173e-02 -8.9356 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly               -5.4416e-01  6.9979e-02 -7.7760 4.918e-14 ***      
                idNetherlands         -6.4864e-01  9.5415e-02 -6.7980 3.287e-11 ***      
                idPortugal            -3.9968e-01  6.0158e-02 -6.6439 8.616e-11 ***      
                idSpain               -1.1374e-01  4.8381e-02 -2.3510 0.0191427 *        
                idSweden               6.2436e-02  4.7381e-02  1.3177 0.1882438          
                idSwitzerland          2.0922e-01  5.1688e-02  4.0478 6.061e-05 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom       -6.2470e-01  7.4271e-02 -8.4112 5.102e-16 ***      
                idUnitedStates        -5.3056e-02  4.6818e-02 -1.1332 0.2577078          
                time1991              -1.2114e+00  1.2938e+00 -0.9363 0.3496075          
                time1992              -1.0907e+00  1.3562e+00 -0.8043 0.4216548          
                time1993              -1.0274e+00  1.2986e+00 -0.7911 0.4292911          
                time1994              -9.7247e-01  1.1713e+00 -0.8303 0.4068230          
                time1995              -9.3547e-01  1.1016e+00 -0.8492 0.3962230          
                time1996              -7.7368e-01  1.1348e+00 -0.6818 0.4957364          
                time1997              -8.1694e-01  9.8842e-01 -0.8265 0.4089360          
                time1998              -9.0845e-01  7.9637e-01 -1.1407 0.2545747          
                time1999              -6.7682e-01  6.8090e-01 -0.9940 0.3207356          
                time2000              -5.2300e-01  5.9257e-01 -0.8826 0.3779160          
                time2001              -5.7457e-01  5.2631e-01 -1.0917 0.2755351          
                time2002              -4.5772e-01  4.8248e-01 -0.9487 0.3432792          
                time2003              -3.7670e-01  4.8185e-01 -0.7818 0.4347508          
                time2004              -3.6371e-01  3.9997e-01 -0.9093 0.3636406          
                time2005              -2.8546e-01  2.7588e-01 -1.0347 0.3013484          
                time2006              -3.1140e-01  2.1738e-01 -1.4325 0.1526839          
                time2007              -2.0676e-01  2.1058e-01 -0.9819 0.3266826          
                time2008              -2.4012e-01  2.3305e-01 -1.0304 0.3033821          
                time2009              -3.1128e-01  3.8228e-01 -0.8143 0.4159181          
                time2010              -3.0643e-01  2.5514e-01 -1.2010 0.2303704          
                time2011              -2.4774e-01  2.0670e-01 -1.1985 0.2313212          
                time2012              -2.9921e-01  1.5801e-01 -1.8937 0.0588918 .        
                time2013              -1.3294e-01  1.6220e-01 -0.8196 0.4128549          
                time2014               5.1355e-02  1.4004e-01  0.3667 0.7139914          
                time2015              -6.2566e-02  9.2807e-02 -0.6742 0.5005501          
                time2016              -1.9346e-01  8.6855e-02 -2.2274 0.0263995 *        
                iis57                  1.1243e+00  2.1375e-01  5.2599 2.210e-07 ***      
                iis99                  1.1310e+00  1.9362e-01  5.8414 9.775e-09 ***      
                iis137                 9.8143e-01  1.9539e-01  5.0230 7.280e-07 ***      
                iis139                -1.3041e+00  1.9671e-01 -6.6294 9.423e-11 ***      
                iis241                -1.0582e+00  1.9379e-01 -5.4604 7.771e-08 ***      
                iis248                 7.4973e-01  1.9466e-01  3.8516 0.0001339 ***      
                iis319                 8.0489e-01  2.0471e-01  3.9319 9.719e-05 ***      
                iis419                -6.4613e-01  1.9326e-01 -3.3434 0.0008950 ***      
                iis478                 7.4132e-01  1.9370e-01  3.8271 0.0001475 ***      
                iis484                 7.4173e-01  1.9323e-01  3.8386 0.0001410 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2014     -5.1484e-01  1.0393e-01 -4.9536 1.024e-06 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2019      9.6423e-01  1.4526e-01  6.6381 8.932e-11 ***      
                fesisFinland.1996      7.5105e-01  2.0879e-01  3.5971 0.0003565 ***      
                fesisFinland.1997     -9.7651e-01  2.1282e-01 -4.5885 5.760e-06 ***      
                fesisFinland.2001      4.6030e-01  1.0579e-01  4.3510 1.669e-05 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.1999  3.2747e-01  9.9898e-02  3.2781 0.0011240 **       
                fesisNetherlands.2008  3.2341e-01  8.7297e-02  3.7047 0.0002373 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df p-value        
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   0.27033  1  0.6031        
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 4.92322  1  0.0265 *      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.18426      
                R-squared          0.98081      
                Log-lik.(n=527)  176.08795      

w. ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:17:32 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 544       
                Sample: 1 to 544       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                 -2.7234e+00  1.6743e+00 -1.6267 0.1044968          
                lpop                    -3.3258e-01  5.3901e-01 -0.6170 0.5375321          
                lgdp_wb_sq               6.1450e-02  3.2001e-02  1.9203 0.0554463 .        
                hdd                      5.5487e-05  6.9003e-05  0.8041 0.4217417          
                cdd                      4.6976e-04  2.0658e-04  2.2740 0.0234261 *        
                EU_ETS_05                1.7851e-01  8.9049e-02  2.0047 0.0455863 *        
                EU_ETS_08                2.2390e-02  9.8035e-02  0.2284 0.8194482          
                EU_ETS_13                3.2990e-01  8.9460e-02  3.6877 0.0002534 ***      
                idBelgium               -4.2421e-01  1.4314e-01 -2.9636 0.0031986 **       
                idCanada                 8.0880e-01  5.7771e-01  1.4000 0.1621853          
                idDenmark               -2.6649e-01  2.0928e-01 -1.2733 0.2035484          
                idFinland               -1.8375e+00  2.2710e-01 -8.0910 5.361e-15 ***      
                idFrance                 1.3220e+00  8.9292e-01  1.4806 0.1394053          
                idGermany                5.5854e-01  9.9947e-01  0.5588 0.5765430          
                idGreece                -1.6039e+00  2.9710e-01 -5.3985 1.081e-07 ***      
                idIreland               -1.9833e+00  3.5018e-01 -5.6639 2.618e-08 ***      
                idItaly                 -2.2767e+00  8.7871e-01 -2.5910 0.0098759 **       
                idNetherlands           -1.0613e+00  3.1752e-01 -3.3423 0.0008990 ***      
                idPortugal              -8.7778e-01  2.7252e-01 -3.2210 0.0013683 **       
                idSpain                 -6.4228e-01  7.7643e-01 -0.8272 0.4085378          
                idSweden                 1.2238e-01  8.5259e-02  1.4354 0.1518434          
                idSwitzerland            5.8185e-01  1.7195e-01  3.3839 0.0007760 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom         -2.7976e+00  8.7211e-01 -3.2078 0.0014311 **       
                idUnitedStates          -1.7064e+00  1.5284e+00 -1.1164 0.2648290          
                time1990                 3.6440e+01  2.4030e+01  1.5165 0.1300927          
                time1991                 3.6396e+01  2.4033e+01  1.5144 0.1306101          
                time1992                 3.6439e+01  2.4033e+01  1.5162 0.1301542          
                time1993                 3.6447e+01  2.4033e+01  1.5165 0.1300751          
                time1994                 3.6429e+01  2.4034e+01  1.5157 0.1302765          
                time1995                 3.6437e+01  2.4033e+01  1.5162 0.1301697          
                time1996                 3.6578e+01  2.4031e+01  1.5221 0.1286659          
                time1997                 3.6577e+01  2.4031e+01  1.5221 0.1286746          
                time1998                 3.6564e+01  2.4030e+01  1.5216 0.1287952          
                time1999                 3.6661e+01  2.4025e+01  1.5259 0.1277193          
                time2000                 3.6667e+01  2.4023e+01  1.5263 0.1276148          
                time2001                 3.6686e+01  2.4023e+01  1.5271 0.1274215          
                time2002                 3.6726e+01  2.4023e+01  1.5288 0.1270089          
                time2003                 3.6689e+01  2.4026e+01  1.5271 0.1274376          
                time2004                 3.6751e+01  2.4024e+01  1.5298 0.1267660          
                time2005                 3.6641e+01  2.4010e+01  1.5261 0.1276804          
                time2006                 3.6685e+01  2.4010e+01  1.5279 0.1272189          
                time2007                 3.6719e+01  2.4008e+01  1.5295 0.1268406          
                time2008                 3.6654e+01  2.4014e+01  1.5263 0.1276177          
                time2009                 3.6705e+01  2.4019e+01  1.5282 0.1271624          
                time2010                 3.6726e+01  2.4018e+01  1.5291 0.1269262          
                time2011                 3.6736e+01  2.4021e+01  1.5293 0.1268729          
                time2012                 3.6722e+01  2.4022e+01  1.5287 0.1270261          
                time2013                 3.6466e+01  2.4028e+01  1.5176 0.1297967          
                time2014                 3.6542e+01  2.4027e+01  1.5209 0.1289837          
                time2015                 3.6568e+01  2.4027e+01  1.5220 0.1287096          
                time2016                 3.6505e+01  2.4026e+01  1.5194 0.1293565          
                time2017                 3.6542e+01  2.4025e+01  1.5210 0.1289492          
                time2018                 3.6509e+01  2.4024e+01  1.5197 0.1292829          
                time2019                 3.6557e+01  2.4024e+01  1.5217 0.1287786          
                time2020                 3.6673e+01  2.4031e+01  1.5261 0.1276790          
                time2021                 3.6635e+01  2.4025e+01  1.5248 0.1279892          
                iis30                    8.0235e-01  2.2652e-01  3.5420 0.0004378 ***      
                iis112                  -9.1714e-01  2.1650e-01 -4.2361 2.751e-05 ***      
                iis113                  -1.3149e+00  2.1643e-01 -6.0753 2.604e-09 ***      
                iis116                  -9.6741e-01  2.1666e-01 -4.4651 1.009e-05 ***      
                iis181                   8.2577e-01  2.1965e-01  3.7595 0.0001923 ***      
                iis246                   9.6993e-01  2.1961e-01  4.4166 1.252e-05 ***      
                iis247                   8.9538e-01  2.1897e-01  4.0891 5.115e-05 ***      
                iis407                  -8.3783e-01  2.2460e-01 -3.7303 0.0002153 ***      
                iis408                  -7.2517e-01  2.2424e-01 -3.2338 0.0013097 **       
                iis409                  -1.0460e+00  2.2412e-01 -4.6670 4.020e-06 ***      
                iis410                  -1.0062e+00  2.2390e-01 -4.4939 8.868e-06 ***      
                iis411                  -1.0250e+00  2.2392e-01 -4.5775 6.069e-06 ***      
                iis412                  -8.5159e-01  2.2427e-01 -3.7971 0.0001661 ***      
                iis413                  -9.3760e-01  2.2596e-01 -4.1493 3.976e-05 ***      
                iis414                  -1.1035e+00  2.2452e-01 -4.9151 1.238e-06 ***      
                iis415                  -1.1101e+00  2.2384e-01 -4.9596 9.970e-07 ***      
                fesisCanada.2013         3.1173e-01  1.1043e-01  2.8229 0.0049665 **       
                fesisUnitedStates.2011  -4.5688e-01  1.1954e-01 -3.8219 0.0001507 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2008       -2.3198e-01  8.0263e-02 -2.8903 0.0040316 **       
                fesisFinland.2003        3.5046e-01  8.6291e-02  4.0614 5.739e-05 ***      
                fesisFrance.2004        -6.3174e-01  8.2095e-02 -7.6953 8.750e-14 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2003  5.9009e-01  8.6038e-02  6.8585 2.263e-11 ***      
                fesisGreece.2014        -3.9407e-01  1.0029e-01 -3.9295 9.826e-05 ***      
                fesisIreland.1999       -4.0689e-01  1.3003e-01 -3.1292 0.0018645 **       
                fesisItaly.1999         -4.0372e-01  1.0479e-01 -3.8527 0.0001335 ***      
                fesisItaly.2007          4.2159e-01  1.1233e-01  3.7533 0.0001970 ***      
                fesisItaly.2014          3.9300e-01  1.1327e-01  3.4695 0.0005707 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2008    7.5551e-01  9.2756e-02  8.1451 3.631e-15 ***      
                fesisSweden.2006        -4.6038e-01  1.1112e-01 -4.1432 4.080e-05 ***      
                fesisSweden.2011         6.0339e-01  1.1657e-01  5.1760 3.399e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   77.880  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 35.641  1 2.372e-09 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.20560      
                R-squared          0.97721      
                Log-lik.(n=544)  131.60861      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_exports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:17:19 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 527       
                Sample: 1 to 527       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                             coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                    6.8437e-01  3.0114e-02 22.7256 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                1.4659e-01  9.7106e-01  0.1510 0.8800712          
                lpop                   1.7965e+00  3.5374e+00  0.5079 0.6117831          
                lgdp_wb_sq            -4.1936e-02  4.6109e-02 -0.9095 0.3635631          
                hdd                   -3.2417e-04  2.4791e-04 -1.3076 0.1916602          
                cdd                    5.5753e-05  3.5612e-04  0.1566 0.8756617          
                idBelgium             -1.8480e-01  5.2936e-02 -3.4911 0.0005272 ***      
                idCanada               3.6666e-01  5.7901e-02  6.3326 5.719e-10 ***      
                idDenmark             -1.5192e-01  4.8528e-02 -3.1306 0.0018549 **       
                idFinland             -6.4014e-01  1.0658e-01 -6.0061 3.853e-09 ***      
                idFrance               4.4661e-01  6.4538e-02  6.9201 1.514e-11 ***      
                idGermany              3.8991e-01  5.9911e-02  6.5082 1.984e-10 ***      
                idGreece              -5.5270e-01  7.2105e-02 -7.6652 1.062e-13 ***      
                idIreland             -7.7894e-01  8.7173e-02 -8.9356 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly               -5.4416e-01  6.9979e-02 -7.7760 4.918e-14 ***      
                idNetherlands         -6.4864e-01  9.5415e-02 -6.7980 3.287e-11 ***      
                idPortugal            -3.9968e-01  6.0158e-02 -6.6439 8.616e-11 ***      
                idSpain               -1.1374e-01  4.8381e-02 -2.3510 0.0191427 *        
                idSweden               6.2436e-02  4.7381e-02  1.3177 0.1882438          
                idSwitzerland          2.0922e-01  5.1688e-02  4.0478 6.061e-05 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom       -6.2470e-01  7.4271e-02 -8.4112 5.102e-16 ***      
                idUnitedStates        -5.3056e-02  4.6818e-02 -1.1332 0.2577078          
                time1991              -1.2114e+00  1.2938e+00 -0.9363 0.3496075          
                time1992              -1.0907e+00  1.3562e+00 -0.8043 0.4216548          
                time1993              -1.0274e+00  1.2986e+00 -0.7911 0.4292911          
                time1994              -9.7247e-01  1.1713e+00 -0.8303 0.4068230          
                time1995              -9.3547e-01  1.1016e+00 -0.8492 0.3962230          
                time1996              -7.7368e-01  1.1348e+00 -0.6818 0.4957364          
                time1997              -8.1694e-01  9.8842e-01 -0.8265 0.4089360          
                time1998              -9.0845e-01  7.9637e-01 -1.1407 0.2545747          
                time1999              -6.7682e-01  6.8090e-01 -0.9940 0.3207356          
                time2000              -5.2300e-01  5.9257e-01 -0.8826 0.3779160          
                time2001              -5.7457e-01  5.2631e-01 -1.0917 0.2755351          
                time2002              -4.5772e-01  4.8248e-01 -0.9487 0.3432792          
                time2003              -3.7670e-01  4.8185e-01 -0.7818 0.4347508          
                time2004              -3.6371e-01  3.9997e-01 -0.9093 0.3636406          
                time2005              -2.8546e-01  2.7588e-01 -1.0347 0.3013484          
                time2006              -3.1140e-01  2.1738e-01 -1.4325 0.1526839          
                time2007              -2.0676e-01  2.1058e-01 -0.9819 0.3266826          
                time2008              -2.4012e-01  2.3305e-01 -1.0304 0.3033821          
                time2009              -3.1128e-01  3.8228e-01 -0.8143 0.4159181          
                time2010              -3.0643e-01  2.5514e-01 -1.2010 0.2303704          
                time2011              -2.4774e-01  2.0670e-01 -1.1985 0.2313212          
                time2012              -2.9921e-01  1.5801e-01 -1.8937 0.0588918 .        
                time2013              -1.3294e-01  1.6220e-01 -0.8196 0.4128549          
                time2014               5.1355e-02  1.4004e-01  0.3667 0.7139914          
                time2015              -6.2566e-02  9.2807e-02 -0.6742 0.5005501          
                time2016              -1.9346e-01  8.6855e-02 -2.2274 0.0263995 *        
                iis57                  1.1243e+00  2.1375e-01  5.2599 2.210e-07 ***      
                iis99                  1.1310e+00  1.9362e-01  5.8414 9.775e-09 ***      
                iis137                 9.8143e-01  1.9539e-01  5.0230 7.280e-07 ***      
                iis139                -1.3041e+00  1.9671e-01 -6.6294 9.423e-11 ***      
                iis241                -1.0582e+00  1.9379e-01 -5.4604 7.771e-08 ***      
                iis248                 7.4973e-01  1.9466e-01  3.8516 0.0001339 ***      
                iis319                 8.0489e-01  2.0471e-01  3.9319 9.719e-05 ***      
                iis419                -6.4613e-01  1.9326e-01 -3.3434 0.0008950 ***      
                iis478                 7.4132e-01  1.9370e-01  3.8271 0.0001475 ***      
                iis484                 7.4173e-01  1.9323e-01  3.8386 0.0001410 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2014     -5.1484e-01  1.0393e-01 -4.9536 1.024e-06 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2019      9.6423e-01  1.4526e-01  6.6381 8.932e-11 ***      
                fesisFinland.1996      7.5105e-01  2.0879e-01  3.5971 0.0003565 ***      
                fesisFinland.1997     -9.7651e-01  2.1282e-01 -4.5885 5.760e-06 ***      
                fesisFinland.2001      4.6030e-01  1.0579e-01  4.3510 1.669e-05 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.1999  3.2747e-01  9.9898e-02  3.2781 0.0011240 **       
                fesisNetherlands.2008  3.2341e-01  8.7297e-02  3.7047 0.0002373 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df p-value        
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   0.27033  1  0.6031        
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 4.92322  1  0.0265 *      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.18426      
                R-squared          0.98081      
                Log-lik.(n=527)  176.08795      

Generation

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:43:57 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  1.3915e+00  2.0082e-01   6.9289 1.176e-11 ***      
                lpop                    -1.0622e-01  7.8012e-02  -1.3616 0.1738701          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.8123e-02  3.9373e-03  -4.6029 5.165e-06 ***      
                hdd                      4.2891e-05  1.2547e-05   3.4186 0.0006756 ***      
                cdd                      1.4015e-04  3.5116e-05   3.9909 7.461e-05 ***      
                idAustria               -9.2927e-01  6.4961e-02 -14.3050 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -6.4383e-01  4.7549e-02 -13.5403 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 9.1152e-01  5.2096e-02  17.4969 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.3447e+00  8.6298e-02 -15.5825 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -6.1820e-01  9.5401e-02  -6.4800 2.021e-10 ***      
                idFrance                 7.6243e-01  7.4105e-02  10.2886 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idGermany                7.4873e-01  8.8892e-02   8.4229 3.131e-16 ***      
                idGreece                -9.9595e-01  3.7837e-02 -26.3224 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -1.6100e+00  9.7499e-02 -16.5127 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  3.8619e-02  6.8617e-02   0.5628 0.5737807          
                idJapan                  1.2309e+00  1.1301e-01  10.8925 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNetherlands           -6.8023e-01  3.2910e-02 -20.6696 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -9.3047e-01  9.0847e-02 -10.2421 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.1208e+00  3.8958e-02 -28.7700 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -4.0867e-02  5.7703e-02  -0.7082 0.4790947          
                idSweden                 8.1825e-02  6.5454e-02   1.2501 0.2117800          
                idSwitzerland           -1.0609e+00  8.0129e-02 -13.2396 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          3.5199e-01  7.2734e-02   4.8394 1.688e-06 ***      
                idUnitedStates           2.1930e+00  1.5521e-01  14.1290 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                -1.7690e+01  2.8926e+00  -6.1155 1.812e-09 ***      
                time1991                -1.7667e+01  2.8926e+00  -6.1076 1.899e-09 ***      
                time1992                -1.7649e+01  2.8923e+00  -6.1021 1.962e-09 ***      
                time1993                -1.7634e+01  2.8924e+00  -6.0966 2.025e-09 ***      
                time1994                -1.7618e+01  2.8927e+00  -6.0904 2.100e-09 ***      
                time1995                -1.7600e+01  2.8922e+00  -6.0855 2.161e-09 ***      
                time1996                -1.7597e+01  2.8916e+00  -6.0858 2.158e-09 ***      
                time1997                -1.7580e+01  2.8916e+00  -6.0796 2.238e-09 ***      
                time1998                -1.7571e+01  2.8913e+00  -6.0770 2.271e-09 ***      
                time1999                -1.7555e+01  2.8909e+00  -6.0723 2.335e-09 ***      
                time2000                -1.7576e+01  2.8903e+00  -6.0811 2.219e-09 ***      
                time2001                -1.7568e+01  2.8903e+00  -6.0782 2.256e-09 ***      
                time2002                -1.7555e+01  2.8902e+00  -6.0739 2.314e-09 ***      
                time2003                -1.7559e+01  2.8904e+00  -6.0747 2.302e-09 ***      
                time2004                -1.7547e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0724 2.333e-09 ***      
                time2005                -1.7566e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0791 2.245e-09 ***      
                time2006                -1.7562e+01  2.8894e+00  -6.0782 2.256e-09 ***      
                time2007                -1.7539e+01  2.8888e+00  -6.0713 2.349e-09 ***      
                time2008                -1.7547e+01  2.8889e+00  -6.0740 2.312e-09 ***      
                time2009                -1.7559e+01  2.8899e+00  -6.0761 2.283e-09 ***      
                time2010                -1.7544e+01  2.8897e+00  -6.0712 2.350e-09 ***      
                time2011                -1.7551e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0739 2.314e-09 ***      
                time2012                -1.7561e+01  2.8899e+00  -6.0768 2.274e-09 ***      
                time2013                -1.7566e+01  2.8898e+00  -6.0785 2.252e-09 ***      
                time2014                -1.7590e+01  2.8897e+00  -6.0871 2.141e-09 ***      
                time2015                -1.7594e+01  2.8896e+00  -6.0888 2.121e-09 ***      
                time2016                -1.7589e+01  2.8895e+00  -6.0872 2.140e-09 ***      
                time2017                -1.7598e+01  2.8893e+00  -6.0907 2.097e-09 ***      
                time2018                -1.7617e+01  2.8894e+00  -6.0970 2.021e-09 ***      
                time2019                -1.7614e+01  2.8891e+00  -6.0968 2.024e-09 ***      
                time2020                -1.7606e+01  2.8904e+00  -6.0911 2.092e-09 ***      
                time2021                -1.7610e+01  2.8890e+00  -6.0955 2.039e-09 ***      
                iis113                  -2.2754e-01  4.2701e-02  -5.3286 1.439e-07 ***      
                iis176                   1.7279e-01  4.4058e-02   3.9220 9.879e-05 ***      
                iis179                   1.9470e-01  4.4048e-02   4.4202 1.186e-05 ***      
                iis181                   4.1232e-01  4.4191e-02   9.3306 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis182                   1.9872e-01  4.4143e-02   4.5018 8.209e-06 ***      
                iis183                   1.2137e-01  4.4074e-02   2.7538 0.0060826 **       
                iis188                   1.8379e-01  4.4072e-02   4.1702 3.529e-05 ***      
                iis191                   1.4185e-01  4.4112e-02   3.2156 0.0013771 **       
                fesisSwitzerland.2003   -1.1172e-01  1.5746e-02  -7.0950 3.948e-12 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2007       -6.2595e-02  2.3318e-02  -2.6844 0.0074831 **       
                fesisDenmark.2012       -1.6642e-01  2.3103e-02  -7.2032 1.919e-12 ***      
                fesisSpain.2000          1.8775e-01  2.4990e-02   7.5129 2.318e-13 ***      
                fesisSpain.2004          1.2923e-01  2.3529e-02   5.4925 6.033e-08 ***      
                fesisFinland.2009       -1.0562e-01  1.5941e-02  -6.6256 8.169e-11 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2012 -1.5825e-01  1.6516e-02  -9.5816 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisGreece.2000         1.6604e-01  1.7340e-02   9.5756 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisItaly.2004          1.1718e-01  1.6299e-02   7.1893 2.105e-12 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2009    1.0435e-01  1.8027e-02   5.7884 1.187e-08 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2017    9.0862e-02  2.3958e-02   3.7925 0.0001655 ***      
                fesisPortugal.1998       1.7808e-01  2.1342e-02   8.3442 5.671e-16 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2006       6.9948e-02  2.1304e-02   3.2833 0.0010905 **       
                fesisPortugal.2014       1.3613e-01  2.1491e-02   6.3344 4.914e-10 ***      
                fesisSweden.1994        -1.1363e-01  2.5936e-02  -4.3812 1.411e-05 ***      
                fesisSweden.2002        -1.4900e-01  2.0268e-02  -7.3517 7.025e-13 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012         7.9527e-02  1.8981e-02   4.1899 3.245e-05 ***      
                fesisJapan.2000         -5.5173e-02  1.7286e-02  -3.1918 0.0014935 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   95.255  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.359  1 0.0002572 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.04088      
                R-squared           0.99914      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  1177.19304      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:43:50 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                8.3058e-01  1.9367e-02  42.8869 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb            2.3893e-01  1.7771e-01   1.3445 0.1793428          
                lpop              -8.5305e-01  6.4497e-01  -1.3226 0.1865160          
                lgdp_wb_sq         1.1551e-02  8.3928e-03   1.3763 0.1693028          
                hdd               -1.3463e-05  4.5145e-05  -0.2982 0.7656597          
                cdd               -5.8989e-05  6.5530e-05  -0.9002 0.3684189          
                idAustria         -2.1749e-01  2.5883e-02  -8.4028 3.793e-16 ***      
                idBelgium         -1.7195e-01  2.0790e-02  -8.2708 1.021e-15 ***      
                idCanada           1.6723e-01  2.1837e-02   7.6581 8.636e-14 ***      
                idDenmark         -3.9336e-01  3.3414e-02 -11.7722 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland         -1.7223e-01  2.3570e-02  -7.3070 9.750e-13 ***      
                idFrance           1.5089e-01  2.0107e-02   7.5042 2.526e-13 ***      
                idGermany          1.6038e-01  2.1836e-02   7.3449 7.539e-13 ***      
                idGreece          -2.4236e-01  2.9134e-02  -8.3188 7.133e-16 ***      
                idIreland         -3.6004e-01  4.3261e-02  -8.3226 6.933e-16 ***      
                idItaly            3.6048e-02  1.0257e-02   3.5144 0.0004774 ***      
                idJapan            2.5356e-01  3.1673e-02   8.0057 7.189e-15 ***      
                idNetherlands     -1.2945e-01  1.7542e-02  -7.3792 5.964e-13 ***      
                idNewZealand      -2.8712e-01  3.3645e-02  -8.5338 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal        -2.6939e-01  3.1960e-02  -8.4292 3.108e-16 ***      
                idSpain           -2.3750e-02  1.6401e-02  -1.4481 0.1481714          
                idSweden          -6.2055e-02  1.1169e-02  -5.5560 4.320e-08 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -2.1433e-01  2.5010e-02  -8.5698 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    7.1324e-02  1.3507e-02   5.2807 1.861e-07 ***      
                idUnitedStates     4.8547e-01  5.6998e-02   8.5173 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991           3.0568e-01  2.3561e-01   1.2974 0.1950538          
                time1992           2.8842e-01  2.4707e-01   1.1674 0.2435700          
                time1993           2.8943e-01  2.3653e-01   1.2236 0.2216137          
                time1994           2.7579e-01  2.1332e-01   1.2929 0.1966022          
                time1995           2.6372e-01  2.0057e-01   1.3149 0.1891007          
                time1996           2.5807e-01  2.0671e-01   1.2485 0.2123961          
                time1997           2.3100e-01  1.8004e-01   1.2831 0.2000157          
                time1998           2.1740e-01  1.4490e-01   1.5004 0.1341018          
                time1999           1.8178e-01  1.2388e-01   1.4674 0.1428383          
                time2000           1.2876e-01  1.0792e-01   1.1931 0.2333326          
                time2001           1.3865e-01  9.5771e-02   1.4477 0.1482731          
                time2002           1.1075e-01  8.7790e-02   1.2615 0.2076584          
                time2003           1.1321e-01  8.7700e-02   1.2909 0.1972819          
                time2004           1.0052e-01  7.2864e-02   1.3795 0.1682946          
                time2005           7.4931e-02  5.0077e-02   1.4963 0.1351533          
                time2006           6.4030e-02  3.9525e-02   1.6200 0.1058087          
                time2007           6.5107e-02  3.8264e-02   1.7015 0.0894127 .        
                time2008           4.6913e-02  4.2430e-02   1.1056 0.2693656          
                time2009           6.5399e-02  6.9640e-02   0.9391 0.3480917          
                time2010           1.0457e-01  4.6358e-02   2.2557 0.0244820 *        
                time2011           3.0436e-02  3.7594e-02   0.8096 0.4185196          
                time2012           3.0727e-02  2.8624e-02   1.0734 0.2835436          
                time2013           1.8332e-02  2.9562e-02   0.6201 0.5354437          
                time2014          -8.5128e-03  2.5488e-02  -0.3340 0.7385171          
                time2015           1.8016e-02  1.6858e-02   1.0687 0.2856896          
                time2016           2.0759e-02  1.5713e-02   1.3212 0.1869924          
                iis88              1.3207e-01  4.2647e-02   3.0968 0.0020564 **       
                iis90             -1.8227e-01  4.2358e-02  -4.3029 1.998e-05 ***      
                iis91              1.7349e-01  4.2513e-02   4.0808 5.158e-05 ***      
                iis125             3.8417e-01  4.0211e-02   9.5539 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis127             1.7784e-01  3.9859e-02   4.4617 9.879e-06 ***      
                iis128             2.5579e-01  3.9710e-02   6.4415 2.597e-10 ***      
                iis130             4.6840e-01  3.9679e-02  11.8048 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis137             1.2576e-01  4.4916e-02   2.7999 0.0052922 **       
                iis140             2.8789e-01  3.9021e-02   7.3779 6.020e-13 ***      
                iis170            -3.0770e-01  5.2084e-02  -5.9078 6.105e-09 ***      
                iis459             1.4723e-01  3.7393e-02   3.9373 9.306e-05 ***      
                iis511            -1.1590e-01  3.7383e-02  -3.1003 0.0020330 **       
                fesisBelgium.2014 -1.0261e-01  2.7187e-02  -3.7741 0.0001781 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2016  1.3490e-01  3.3589e-02   4.0161 6.745e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2001  1.2329e-01  3.0279e-02   4.0719 5.354e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004 -1.1531e-01  2.8994e-02  -3.9769 7.921e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2013  1.7387e-01  3.9214e-02   4.4340 1.119e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2014 -1.5601e-01  3.9207e-02  -3.9791 7.850e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2021  1.5168e-01  3.9282e-02   3.8614 0.0001263 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005  1.1101e-01  3.8108e-02   2.9130 0.0037267 **       
                fesisFinland.2007 -1.4737e-01  3.7981e-02  -3.8801 0.0001171 ***      
                fesisSpain.1997    5.6347e-02  1.7555e-02   3.2097 0.0014066 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.7741  1     0.379          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 28.7203  1 8.362e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.03574      
                R-squared           0.99933      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  1220.41038      

w. ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:59:46 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  1.0850e+00  2.0662e-01   5.2512 2.158e-07 ***      
                lpop                     6.8522e-02  8.2411e-02   0.8315 0.4060724          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.2794e-02  4.0024e-03  -3.1967 0.0014696 **       
                hdd                      4.1810e-05  1.2155e-05   3.4399 0.0006258 ***      
                cdd                      1.4438e-04  3.4171e-05   4.2252 2.791e-05 ***      
                EU_ETS_05                5.3923e-02  1.3169e-02   4.0948 4.854e-05 ***      
                EU_ETS_08               -7.0128e-03  1.4415e-02  -0.4865 0.6268058          
                EU_ETS_13               -1.1644e-03  1.1717e-02  -0.0994 0.9208709          
                idAustria               -8.0785e-01  6.4804e-02 -12.4661 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idBelgium               -5.5222e-01  4.7436e-02 -11.6413 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idCanada                 8.4177e-01  5.2883e-02  15.9176 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idDenmark               -1.1393e+00  8.9204e-02 -12.7713 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland               -4.2797e-01  9.6001e-02  -4.4579 1.002e-05 ***      
                idFrance                 5.5331e-01  8.1355e-02   6.8011 2.696e-11 ***      
                idGermany                4.9583e-01  9.7930e-02   5.0631 5.623e-07 ***      
                idGreece                -9.3765e-01  3.6236e-02 -25.8759 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idIreland               -1.3868e+00  1.0097e-01 -13.7349 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                 -1.5233e-01  7.5099e-02  -2.0284 0.0429941 *        
                idJapan                  8.8536e-01  1.2061e-01   7.3405 7.629e-13 ***      
                idNetherlands           -6.6004e-01  3.1867e-02 -20.7121 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idNewZealand            -6.9027e-01  9.6850e-02  -7.1272 3.206e-12 ***      
                idPortugal              -1.0556e+00  3.8360e-02 -27.5193 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idSpain                 -1.7814e-01  6.1560e-02  -2.8938 0.0039559 **       
                idSweden                 1.9376e-01  6.5307e-02   2.9669 0.0031380 **       
                idSwitzerland           -8.9431e-01  8.2522e-02 -10.8372 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          1.7106e-01  7.8650e-02   2.1749 0.0300570 *        
                idUnitedStates           1.7247e+00  1.7236e-01  10.0066 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1990                -1.6211e+01  2.8497e+00  -5.6886 2.076e-08 ***      
                time1991                -1.6188e+01  2.8496e+00  -5.6808 2.168e-08 ***      
                time1992                -1.6172e+01  2.8494e+00  -5.6757 2.229e-08 ***      
                time1993                -1.6158e+01  2.8494e+00  -5.6706 2.293e-08 ***      
                time1994                -1.6142e+01  2.8497e+00  -5.6645 2.371e-08 ***      
                time1995                -1.6125e+01  2.8491e+00  -5.6597 2.435e-08 ***      
                time1996                -1.6122e+01  2.8485e+00  -5.6596 2.436e-08 ***      
                time1997                -1.6105e+01  2.8486e+00  -5.6536 2.519e-08 ***      
                time1998                -1.6096e+01  2.8483e+00  -5.6512 2.552e-08 ***      
                time1999                -1.6081e+01  2.8479e+00  -5.6465 2.618e-08 ***      
                time2000                -1.6105e+01  2.8473e+00  -5.6563 2.482e-08 ***      
                time2001                -1.6097e+01  2.8472e+00  -5.6536 2.518e-08 ***      
                time2002                -1.6080e+01  2.8470e+00  -5.6480 2.597e-08 ***      
                time2003                -1.6090e+01  2.8473e+00  -5.6511 2.553e-08 ***      
                time2004                -1.6077e+01  2.8466e+00  -5.6480 2.597e-08 ***      
                time2005                -1.6135e+01  2.8460e+00  -5.6694 2.309e-08 ***      
                time2006                -1.6122e+01  2.8459e+00  -5.6649 2.367e-08 ***      
                time2007                -1.6101e+01  2.8455e+00  -5.6584 2.453e-08 ***      
                time2008                -1.6105e+01  2.8453e+00  -5.6603 2.427e-08 ***      
                time2009                -1.6123e+01  2.8462e+00  -5.6648 2.368e-08 ***      
                time2010                -1.6108e+01  2.8459e+00  -5.6601 2.430e-08 ***      
                time2011                -1.6116e+01  2.8459e+00  -5.6630 2.391e-08 ***      
                time2012                -1.6135e+01  2.8460e+00  -5.6695 2.307e-08 ***      
                time2013                -1.6125e+01  2.8455e+00  -5.6667 2.343e-08 ***      
                time2014                -1.6149e+01  2.8454e+00  -5.6754 2.233e-08 ***      
                time2015                -1.6165e+01  2.8453e+00  -5.6813 2.161e-08 ***      
                time2016                -1.6158e+01  2.8451e+00  -5.6792 2.187e-08 ***      
                time2017                -1.6167e+01  2.8449e+00  -5.6830 2.141e-08 ***      
                time2018                -1.6187e+01  2.8449e+00  -5.6898 2.063e-08 ***      
                time2019                -1.6185e+01  2.8447e+00  -5.6897 2.063e-08 ***      
                time2020                -1.6179e+01  2.8459e+00  -5.6848 2.120e-08 ***      
                time2021                -1.6182e+01  2.8445e+00  -5.6888 2.073e-08 ***      
                iis176                   1.5839e-01  4.2504e-02   3.7265 0.0002141 ***      
                iis179                   1.8314e-01  4.2494e-02   4.3098 1.934e-05 ***      
                iis181                   4.0131e-01  4.2636e-02   9.4125 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis182                   1.8770e-01  4.2585e-02   4.4077 1.255e-05 ***      
                iis183                   1.1123e-01  4.2521e-02   2.6158 0.0091451 **       
                iis188                   1.7900e-01  4.2508e-02   4.2109 2.969e-05 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2013       -1.7928e-01  2.5415e-02  -7.0541 5.206e-12 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2016        1.7081e-01  2.8777e-02   5.9355 5.170e-09 ***      
                fesisSwitzerland.2002   -9.4627e-02  1.5937e-02  -5.9377 5.105e-09 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2007       -8.7023e-02  2.2396e-02  -3.8856 0.0001144 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2012       -1.6248e-01  2.2671e-02  -7.1669 2.460e-12 ***      
                fesisSpain.2000          1.8851e-01  2.4176e-02   7.7973 3.153e-14 ***      
                fesisSpain.2004          1.0217e-01  2.3404e-02   4.3655 1.514e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2009       -1.0862e-01  1.5581e-02  -6.9715 8.954e-12 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2007 -8.1435e-02  2.0007e-02  -4.0703 5.378e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2013 -1.1820e-01  2.2009e-02  -5.3703 1.158e-07 ***      
                fesisGreece.2000         1.6339e-01  1.6672e-02   9.8001 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisItaly.2004          1.0401e-01  1.5950e-02   6.5213 1.572e-10 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2009    9.4532e-02  1.7721e-02   5.3344 1.399e-07 ***      
                fesisNetherlands.2017    9.2387e-02  2.3327e-02   3.9604 8.457e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.1998       1.8224e-01  1.9359e-02   9.4133 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2009       8.9586e-02  2.2404e-02   3.9986 7.234e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2014       1.1593e-01  2.3803e-02   4.8704 1.455e-06 ***      
                fesisSweden.1994        -1.1074e-01  2.5105e-02  -4.4113 1.235e-05 ***      
                fesisSweden.2002        -1.5751e-01  1.9710e-02  -7.9915 7.784e-15 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012         7.2904e-02  1.8821e-02   3.8736 0.0001201 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   72.680  1  <2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 11.023  1   9e-04 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression    0.0396      
                R-squared           0.9992      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  1199.1504      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_electricity_generation ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Fri Dec 16 17:59:11 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                         coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                8.3058e-01  1.9367e-02  42.8869 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb            2.3893e-01  1.7771e-01   1.3445 0.1793428          
                lpop              -8.5305e-01  6.4497e-01  -1.3226 0.1865160          
                lgdp_wb_sq         1.1551e-02  8.3928e-03   1.3763 0.1693028          
                hdd               -1.3463e-05  4.5145e-05  -0.2982 0.7656597          
                cdd               -5.8989e-05  6.5530e-05  -0.9002 0.3684189          
                idAustria         -2.1749e-01  2.5883e-02  -8.4028 3.793e-16 ***      
                idBelgium         -1.7195e-01  2.0790e-02  -8.2708 1.021e-15 ***      
                idCanada           1.6723e-01  2.1837e-02   7.6581 8.636e-14 ***      
                idDenmark         -3.9336e-01  3.3414e-02 -11.7722 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idFinland         -1.7223e-01  2.3570e-02  -7.3070 9.750e-13 ***      
                idFrance           1.5089e-01  2.0107e-02   7.5042 2.526e-13 ***      
                idGermany          1.6038e-01  2.1836e-02   7.3449 7.539e-13 ***      
                idGreece          -2.4236e-01  2.9134e-02  -8.3188 7.133e-16 ***      
                idIreland         -3.6004e-01  4.3261e-02  -8.3226 6.933e-16 ***      
                idItaly            3.6048e-02  1.0257e-02   3.5144 0.0004774 ***      
                idJapan            2.5356e-01  3.1673e-02   8.0057 7.189e-15 ***      
                idNetherlands     -1.2945e-01  1.7542e-02  -7.3792 5.964e-13 ***      
                idNewZealand      -2.8712e-01  3.3645e-02  -8.5338 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idPortugal        -2.6939e-01  3.1960e-02  -8.4292 3.108e-16 ***      
                idSpain           -2.3750e-02  1.6401e-02  -1.4481 0.1481714          
                idSweden          -6.2055e-02  1.1169e-02  -5.5560 4.320e-08 ***      
                idSwitzerland     -2.1433e-01  2.5010e-02  -8.5698 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom    7.1324e-02  1.3507e-02   5.2807 1.861e-07 ***      
                idUnitedStates     4.8547e-01  5.6998e-02   8.5173 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                time1991           3.0568e-01  2.3561e-01   1.2974 0.1950538          
                time1992           2.8842e-01  2.4707e-01   1.1674 0.2435700          
                time1993           2.8943e-01  2.3653e-01   1.2236 0.2216137          
                time1994           2.7579e-01  2.1332e-01   1.2929 0.1966022          
                time1995           2.6372e-01  2.0057e-01   1.3149 0.1891007          
                time1996           2.5807e-01  2.0671e-01   1.2485 0.2123961          
                time1997           2.3100e-01  1.8004e-01   1.2831 0.2000157          
                time1998           2.1740e-01  1.4490e-01   1.5004 0.1341018          
                time1999           1.8178e-01  1.2388e-01   1.4674 0.1428383          
                time2000           1.2876e-01  1.0792e-01   1.1931 0.2333326          
                time2001           1.3865e-01  9.5771e-02   1.4477 0.1482731          
                time2002           1.1075e-01  8.7790e-02   1.2615 0.2076584          
                time2003           1.1321e-01  8.7700e-02   1.2909 0.1972819          
                time2004           1.0052e-01  7.2864e-02   1.3795 0.1682946          
                time2005           7.4931e-02  5.0077e-02   1.4963 0.1351533          
                time2006           6.4030e-02  3.9525e-02   1.6200 0.1058087          
                time2007           6.5107e-02  3.8264e-02   1.7015 0.0894127 .        
                time2008           4.6913e-02  4.2430e-02   1.1056 0.2693656          
                time2009           6.5399e-02  6.9640e-02   0.9391 0.3480917          
                time2010           1.0457e-01  4.6358e-02   2.2557 0.0244820 *        
                time2011           3.0436e-02  3.7594e-02   0.8096 0.4185196          
                time2012           3.0727e-02  2.8624e-02   1.0734 0.2835436          
                time2013           1.8332e-02  2.9562e-02   0.6201 0.5354437          
                time2014          -8.5128e-03  2.5488e-02  -0.3340 0.7385171          
                time2015           1.8016e-02  1.6858e-02   1.0687 0.2856896          
                time2016           2.0759e-02  1.5713e-02   1.3212 0.1869924          
                iis88              1.3207e-01  4.2647e-02   3.0968 0.0020564 **       
                iis90             -1.8227e-01  4.2358e-02  -4.3029 1.998e-05 ***      
                iis91              1.7349e-01  4.2513e-02   4.0808 5.158e-05 ***      
                iis125             3.8417e-01  4.0211e-02   9.5539 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis127             1.7784e-01  3.9859e-02   4.4617 9.879e-06 ***      
                iis128             2.5579e-01  3.9710e-02   6.4415 2.597e-10 ***      
                iis130             4.6840e-01  3.9679e-02  11.8048 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis137             1.2576e-01  4.4916e-02   2.7999 0.0052922 **       
                iis140             2.8789e-01  3.9021e-02   7.3779 6.020e-13 ***      
                iis170            -3.0770e-01  5.2084e-02  -5.9078 6.105e-09 ***      
                iis459             1.4723e-01  3.7393e-02   3.9373 9.306e-05 ***      
                iis511            -1.1590e-01  3.7383e-02  -3.1003 0.0020330 **       
                fesisBelgium.2014 -1.0261e-01  2.7187e-02  -3.7741 0.0001781 ***      
                fesisBelgium.2016  1.3490e-01  3.3589e-02   4.0161 6.745e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2001  1.2329e-01  3.0279e-02   4.0719 5.354e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2004 -1.1531e-01  2.8994e-02  -3.9769 7.921e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2013  1.7387e-01  3.9214e-02   4.4340 1.119e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2014 -1.5601e-01  3.9207e-02  -3.9791 7.850e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2021  1.5168e-01  3.9282e-02   3.8614 0.0001263 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005  1.1101e-01  3.8108e-02   2.9130 0.0037267 **       
                fesisFinland.2007 -1.4737e-01  3.7981e-02  -3.8801 0.0001171 ***      
                fesisSpain.1997    5.6347e-02  1.7555e-02   3.2097 0.0014066 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.7741  1     0.379          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 28.7203  1 8.362e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                 
                SE of regression    0.03574      
                R-squared           0.99933      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  1220.41038      

Imports Elec Twh

w.o ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:13:25 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 544       
                Sample: 1 to 544       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  1.0634e+01  1.4568e+00  7.2993 1.250e-12 ***      
                lpop                    -5.7119e-01  5.0372e-01 -1.1339 0.2574013          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.9924e-01  2.8722e-02 -6.9368 1.341e-11 ***      
                hdd                     -2.9913e-05  5.9686e-05 -0.5012 0.6164897          
                cdd                      2.8867e-05  1.8461e-04  0.1564 0.8758110          
                idBelgium               -1.4995e-01  1.2826e-01 -1.1691 0.2429581          
                idCanada                 1.4245e+00  5.2938e-01  2.6909 0.0073815 **       
                idDenmark               -6.5679e-01  2.1655e-01 -3.0329 0.0025565 **       
                idFinland               -3.0165e-01  1.9637e-01 -1.5361 0.1251905          
                idFrance                 7.4805e-01  7.9635e-01  0.9394 0.3480324          
                idGermany                3.0864e+00  8.9567e-01  3.4460 0.0006203 ***      
                idGreece                -1.2986e+00  2.7004e-01 -4.8089 2.049e-06 ***      
                idIreland               -2.5580e+00  2.8332e-01 -9.0286 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  2.6766e+00  7.8069e-01  3.4285 0.0006605 ***      
                idNetherlands            5.3773e-01  2.7080e-01  1.9857 0.0476530 *        
                idPortugal              -8.5592e-01  2.4014e-01 -3.5642 0.0004025 ***      
                idSpain                  1.1776e-01  6.9723e-01  0.1689 0.8659548          
                idSweden                -8.1690e-02  6.8911e-02 -1.1854 0.2364464          
                idSwitzerland            4.5651e-01  1.4058e-01  3.2473 0.0012489 **       
                idUnitedKingdom          1.9502e+00  7.7346e-01  2.5215 0.0120178 *        
                idUnitedStates           5.4368e+00  1.3407e+00  4.0552 5.868e-05 ***      
                time1990                -1.3034e+02  2.1238e+01 -6.1370 1.794e-09 ***      
                time1991                -1.3042e+02  2.1240e+01 -6.1403 1.760e-09 ***      
                time1992                -1.3031e+02  2.1240e+01 -6.1352 1.813e-09 ***      
                time1993                -1.3030e+02  2.1240e+01 -6.1346 1.819e-09 ***      
                time1994                -1.3035e+02  2.1240e+01 -6.1372 1.792e-09 ***      
                time1995                -1.3025e+02  2.1237e+01 -6.1331 1.835e-09 ***      
                time1996                -1.3016e+02  2.1234e+01 -6.1299 1.869e-09 ***      
                time1997                -1.3014e+02  2.1233e+01 -6.1294 1.875e-09 ***      
                time1998                -1.3016e+02  2.1230e+01 -6.1311 1.857e-09 ***      
                time1999                -1.3005e+02  2.1227e+01 -6.1265 1.907e-09 ***      
                time2000                -1.2995e+02  2.1222e+01 -6.1232 1.944e-09 ***      
                time2001                -1.2992e+02  2.1223e+01 -6.1217 1.960e-09 ***      
                time2002                -1.2984e+02  2.1222e+01 -6.1180 2.003e-09 ***      
                time2003                -1.2978e+02  2.1223e+01 -6.1150 2.038e-09 ***      
                time2004                -1.2973e+02  2.1219e+01 -6.1138 2.053e-09 ***      
                time2005                -1.2957e+02  2.1218e+01 -6.1066 2.141e-09 ***      
                time2006                -1.2961e+02  2.1217e+01 -6.1088 2.114e-09 ***      
                time2007                -1.2964e+02  2.1219e+01 -6.1095 2.105e-09 ***      
                time2008                -1.2964e+02  2.1220e+01 -6.1095 2.104e-09 ***      
                time2009                -1.2978e+02  2.1226e+01 -6.1141 2.050e-09 ***      
                time2010                -1.2977e+02  2.1224e+01 -6.1141 2.049e-09 ***      
                time2011                -1.2969e+02  2.1224e+01 -6.1105 2.092e-09 ***      
                time2012                -1.2953e+02  2.1226e+01 -6.1024 2.193e-09 ***      
                time2013                -1.2951e+02  2.1229e+01 -6.1005 2.218e-09 ***      
                time2014                -1.2943e+02  2.1228e+01 -6.0971 2.261e-09 ***      
                time2015                -1.2941e+02  2.1227e+01 -6.0968 2.266e-09 ***      
                time2016                -1.2953e+02  2.1225e+01 -6.1026 2.191e-09 ***      
                time2017                -1.2952e+02  2.1223e+01 -6.1026 2.190e-09 ***      
                time2018                -1.2947e+02  2.1222e+01 -6.1005 2.217e-09 ***      
                time2019                -1.2946e+02  2.1220e+01 -6.1010 2.211e-09 ***      
                time2020                -1.2950e+02  2.1230e+01 -6.1001 2.223e-09 ***      
                time2021                -1.2941e+02  2.1222e+01 -6.0977 2.254e-09 ***      
                iis30                   -6.6620e-01  2.0040e-01 -3.3244 0.0009558 ***      
                iis175                   6.6325e-01  2.1687e-01  3.0583 0.0023534 **       
                iis281                   7.3700e-01  2.0020e-01  3.6812 0.0002591 ***      
                iis282                   8.0140e-01  2.0002e-01  4.0065 7.166e-05 ***      
                iis304                  -5.3452e-01  1.9598e-01 -2.7274 0.0066225 **       
                fesisCanada.1991        -8.4918e-01  2.0122e-01 -4.2202 2.933e-05 ***      
                fesisCanada.1998         5.8453e-01  9.0593e-02  6.4522 2.756e-10 ***      
                fesisCanada.2012        -6.2369e-01  8.3293e-02 -7.4879 3.510e-13 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2007   4.6653e-01  9.9919e-02  4.6691 3.958e-06 ***      
                fesisGermany.2013       -4.1460e-01  8.6786e-02 -4.7773 2.382e-06 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1994       -5.5862e-01  1.3268e-01 -4.2102 3.060e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2000        3.2731e-01  1.0233e-01  3.1987 0.0014740 **       
                fesisDenmark.2008        2.5203e-01  8.3707e-02  3.0109 0.0027456 **       
                fesisSpain.1994          4.8599e-01  1.1156e-01  4.3563 1.627e-05 ***      
                fesisSpain.2004         -2.7772e-01  8.5797e-02 -3.2370 0.0012937 **       
                fesisSpain.2016          7.1769e-01  9.4377e-02  7.6045 1.580e-13 ***      
                fesisFrance.2007         3.3818e-01  8.8280e-02  3.8308 0.0001451 ***      
                fesisFrance.2016         5.3656e-01  1.0537e-01  5.0923 5.137e-07 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2001 -7.2708e-01  8.4983e-02 -8.5556 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2013  6.8373e-01  8.6909e-02  7.8671 2.534e-14 ***      
                fesisGreece.2002         4.5165e-01  7.3315e-02  6.1605 1.564e-09 ***      
                fesisItaly.2004         -3.9332e-01  7.1682e-02 -5.4870 6.708e-08 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012        -4.8533e-01  7.3697e-02 -6.5855 1.221e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   68.081  1 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 16.948  1 3.841e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.18136      
                R-squared          0.96459      
                Log-lik.(n=544)  194.86350      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:13:11 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 527       
                Sample: 1 to 527       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      0.63827797  0.02911240  21.9246 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  0.08839899  0.84325335   0.1048 0.9165558          
                lpop                    -1.39578131  3.07642305  -0.4537 0.6502573          
                lgdp_wb_sq               0.02823077  0.04009781   0.7040 0.4817602          
                hdd                      0.00017472  0.00021419   0.8157 0.4150736          
                cdd                     -0.00014651  0.00030656  -0.4779 0.6329322          
                idBelgium               -0.10081129  0.04141844  -2.4340 0.0153146 *        
                idCanada                -0.04422241  0.04798658  -0.9216 0.3572434          
                idDenmark               -0.28987789  0.05831865  -4.9706 9.442e-07 ***      
                idFinland               -0.07665931  0.04101791  -1.8689 0.0622702 .        
                idFrance                -0.34122617  0.04943946  -6.9019 1.713e-11 ***      
                idGermany                0.28718501  0.04785277   6.0014 3.974e-09 ***      
                idGreece                -0.58812351  0.07403501  -7.9439 1.526e-14 ***      
                idIreland               -0.85393295  0.07842139 -10.8890 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  0.31243908  0.04926394   6.3421 5.432e-10 ***      
                idNetherlands            0.03114896  0.04091351   0.7613 0.4468469          
                idPortugal              -0.35958633  0.05010975  -7.1760 2.903e-12 ***      
                idSpain                 -0.19019196  0.04371673  -4.3506 1.675e-05 ***      
                idSweden                -0.22058296  0.04266243  -5.1704 3.494e-07 ***      
                idSwitzerland            0.14773908  0.04309859   3.4279 0.0006630 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          0.15150491  0.06972297   2.1730 0.0302945 *        
                idUnitedStates           0.58758162  0.09338605   6.2920 7.323e-10 ***      
                time1991                 0.36081479  1.12501953   0.3207 0.7485695          
                time1992                 0.37540974  1.17902133   0.3184 0.7503204          
                time1993                 0.32431846  1.12887821   0.2873 0.7740179          
                time1994                 0.28028812  1.01823602   0.2753 0.7832340          
                time1995                 0.35987122  0.95763304   0.3758 0.7072449          
                time1996                 0.26144062  0.98633880   0.2651 0.7910809          
                time1997                 0.27369199  0.85932940   0.3185 0.7502545          
                time1998                 0.31771081  0.69241834   0.4588 0.6465646          
                time1999                 0.33773926  0.59185937   0.5706 0.5685222          
                time2000                 0.20639109  0.51511846   0.4007 0.6888516          
                time2001                 0.17422942  0.45745612   0.3809 0.7034790          
                time2002                 0.19573755  0.41943913   0.4667 0.6409610          
                time2003                 0.16874337  0.41854762   0.4032 0.6870152          
                time2004                 0.12693385  0.34768425   0.3651 0.7152171          
                time2005                 0.27132251  0.23948648   1.1329 0.2578332          
                time2006                 0.13272870  0.18858864   0.7038 0.4819141          
                time2007                 0.08077377  0.18297399   0.4414 0.6590955          
                time2008                 0.05263805  0.20249355   0.2599 0.7950195          
                time2009                 0.00549456  0.33239901   0.0165 0.9868187          
                time2010                 0.11420839  0.22183725   0.5148 0.6069199          
                time2011                 0.09051472  0.17974580   0.5036 0.6148046          
                time2012                 0.17906459  0.13712811   1.3058 0.1922680          
                time2013                 0.02212824  0.14122183   0.1567 0.8755570          
                time2014                 0.04985465  0.12100424   0.4120 0.6805263          
                time2015                 0.05112036  0.08069466   0.6335 0.5267203          
                time2016                -0.00236040  0.07521879  -0.0314 0.9749798          
                iis63                   -0.71100275  0.17125791  -4.1516 3.936e-05 ***      
                iis70                    0.49861805  0.16996323   2.9337 0.0035174 **       
                iis94                   -0.78357870  0.17437143  -4.4937 8.870e-06 ***      
                iis95                    0.75282725  0.17169690   4.3846 1.442e-05 ***      
                iis97                   -0.83367923  0.17200275  -4.8469 1.719e-06 ***      
                iis174                   0.72891484  0.16930371   4.3054 2.040e-05 ***      
                iis181                   0.52270444  0.17903185   2.9196 0.0036770 **       
                iis271                   0.65436676  0.16819070   3.8906 0.0001148 ***      
                iis409                   0.72084562  0.16830822   4.2829 2.248e-05 ***      
                iis413                   0.66460605  0.16840042   3.9466 9.169e-05 ***      
                iis415                   0.57323251  0.16826391   3.4067 0.0007153 ***      
                iis478                  -0.61192626  0.17207383  -3.5562 0.0004154 ***      
                iis484                  -0.45127328  0.17239018  -2.6177 0.0091437 **       
                fesisCanada.2011        -0.21949933  0.06523930  -3.3645 0.0008311 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2007        0.17669388  0.06368270   2.7746 0.0057525 **       
                fesisFrance.2015         0.26155615  0.07701385   3.3962 0.0007426 ***      
                fesisGreece.2001         0.24946970  0.06561714   3.8019 0.0001630 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1998 -0.33340725  0.08294302  -4.0197 6.810e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2012  0.21502941  0.07164989   3.0011 0.0028365 **       
                fesisUnitedStates.1995  -0.26280903  0.08897858  -2.9536 0.0033020 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df p-value      
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   0.40165  1  0.5262      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 1.62217  1  0.2028      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.16034      
                R-squared          0.97168      
                Log-lik.(n=527)  250.85640      

w. ETS

AR = 0

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:16:23 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 544       
                Sample: 1 to 544       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                lgdp_wb                  8.5165e+00  1.4181e+00  6.0055 3.844e-09 ***      
                lpop                     1.7351e-01  5.6783e-01  0.3056 0.7600656          
                lgdp_wb_sq              -1.5992e-01  2.7947e-02 -5.7223 1.883e-08 ***      
                hdd                     -4.4470e-05  6.0474e-05 -0.7354 0.4624882          
                cdd                     -2.2158e-05  1.8965e-04 -0.1168 0.9070411          
                EU_ETS_05                3.0855e-02  8.0652e-02  0.3826 0.7022090          
                EU_ETS_08               -1.1706e-01  8.6339e-02 -1.3558 0.1758083          
                EU_ETS_13                2.8913e-01  8.5665e-02  3.3751 0.0007996 ***      
                idBelgium               -3.4814e-01  1.4158e-01 -2.4590 0.0142939 *        
                idCanada                 5.2443e-01  5.9011e-01  0.8887 0.3746226          
                idDenmark               -3.8165e-01  2.3835e-01 -1.6012 0.1100113          
                idFinland                2.1634e-02  2.1741e-01  0.0995 0.9207786          
                idFrance                -8.3813e-01  9.0289e-01 -0.9283 0.3537441          
                idGermany                1.2545e+00  1.0178e+00  1.2325 0.2183744          
                idGreece                -1.4816e+00  2.8810e-01 -5.1429 3.992e-07 ***      
                idIreland               -2.1096e+00  3.1634e-01 -6.6687 7.324e-11 ***      
                idItaly                  1.0696e+00  8.8248e-01  1.2120 0.2261253          
                idNetherlands            2.1030e-02  3.0545e-01  0.0689 0.9451380          
                idPortugal              -1.0713e+00  2.6067e-01 -4.1099 4.678e-05 ***      
                idSpain                 -1.0789e+00  7.8426e-01 -1.3757 0.1695832          
                idSweden                -1.4714e-01  7.1348e-02 -2.0623 0.0397370 *        
                idSwitzerland            5.6952e-01  1.6510e-01  3.4496 0.0006125 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          3.8391e-01  8.7640e-01  0.4380 0.6615554          
                idUnitedStates           2.4324e+00  1.5180e+00  1.6024 0.1097532          
                time1990                -1.1365e+02  2.0765e+01 -5.4731 7.237e-08 ***      
                time1991                -1.1369e+02  2.0765e+01 -5.4750 7.163e-08 ***      
                time1992                -1.1359e+02  2.0765e+01 -5.4702 7.347e-08 ***      
                time1993                -1.1358e+02  2.0765e+01 -5.4698 7.365e-08 ***      
                time1994                -1.1363e+02  2.0765e+01 -5.4723 7.266e-08 ***      
                time1995                -1.1354e+02  2.0763e+01 -5.4683 7.422e-08 ***      
                time1996                -1.1345e+02  2.0759e+01 -5.4652 7.546e-08 ***      
                time1997                -1.1344e+02  2.0758e+01 -5.4648 7.563e-08 ***      
                time1998                -1.1345e+02  2.0754e+01 -5.4665 7.494e-08 ***      
                time1999                -1.1334e+02  2.0751e+01 -5.4619 7.677e-08 ***      
                time2000                -1.1325e+02  2.0747e+01 -5.4588 7.805e-08 ***      
                time2001                -1.1322e+02  2.0747e+01 -5.4572 7.872e-08 ***      
                time2002                -1.1312e+02  2.0747e+01 -5.4523 8.078e-08 ***      
                time2003                -1.1306e+02  2.0748e+01 -5.4490 8.221e-08 ***      
                time2004                -1.1304e+02  2.0744e+01 -5.4492 8.211e-08 ***      
                time2005                -1.1291e+02  2.0733e+01 -5.4461 8.348e-08 ***      
                time2006                -1.1298e+02  2.0731e+01 -5.4500 8.178e-08 ***      
                time2007                -1.1299e+02  2.0729e+01 -5.4510 8.135e-08 ***      
                time2008                -1.1291e+02  2.0728e+01 -5.4470 8.307e-08 ***      
                time2009                -1.1305e+02  2.0735e+01 -5.4519 8.096e-08 ***      
                time2010                -1.1303e+02  2.0733e+01 -5.4518 8.099e-08 ***      
                time2011                -1.1297e+02  2.0734e+01 -5.4486 8.238e-08 ***      
                time2012                -1.1282e+02  2.0736e+01 -5.4409 8.579e-08 ***      
                time2013                -1.1303e+02  2.0753e+01 -5.4466 8.328e-08 ***      
                time2014                -1.1297e+02  2.0753e+01 -5.4436 8.459e-08 ***      
                time2015                -1.1295e+02  2.0751e+01 -5.4431 8.480e-08 ***      
                time2016                -1.1307e+02  2.0750e+01 -5.4491 8.215e-08 ***      
                time2017                -1.1306e+02  2.0748e+01 -5.4493 8.207e-08 ***      
                time2018                -1.1301e+02  2.0747e+01 -5.4472 8.300e-08 ***      
                time2019                -1.1302e+02  2.0745e+01 -5.4479 8.270e-08 ***      
                time2020                -1.1306e+02  2.0755e+01 -5.4473 8.296e-08 ***      
                time2021                -1.1296e+02  2.0747e+01 -5.4448 8.403e-08 ***      
                iis175                   6.9783e-01  2.1855e-01  3.1930 0.0015035 **       
                iis281                   7.6438e-01  2.0227e-01  3.7790 0.0001779 ***      
                iis282                   8.2690e-01  2.0207e-01  4.0921 5.037e-05 ***      
                iis304                  -5.3737e-01  1.9885e-01 -2.7024 0.0071360 **       
                fesisCanada.1991        -9.1427e-01  2.0272e-01 -4.5099 8.217e-06 ***      
                fesisCanada.1998         5.0460e-01  9.1973e-02  5.4864 6.743e-08 ***      
                fesisCanada.2012        -5.1576e-01  9.9410e-02 -5.1882 3.174e-07 ***      
                fesisUnitedStates.2013   5.5648e-01  1.1894e-01  4.6788 3.787e-06 ***      
                fesisGermany.2013       -4.1997e-01  8.8086e-02 -4.7677 2.495e-06 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1994       -5.4836e-01  1.3397e-01 -4.0932 5.014e-05 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2000        3.3051e-01  1.0320e-01  3.2027 0.0014547 **       
                fesisDenmark.2008        2.5994e-01  8.5307e-02  3.0472 0.0024414 **       
                fesisSpain.1994          4.5433e-01  1.1250e-01  4.0384 6.293e-05 ***      
                fesisSpain.2004         -3.2862e-01  8.9175e-02 -3.6851 0.0002555 ***      
                fesisSpain.2016          7.0026e-01  9.5868e-02  7.3044 1.215e-12 ***      
                fesisFrance.2007         3.0161e-01  9.0021e-02  3.3504 0.0008725 ***      
                fesisFrance.2016         5.1702e-01  1.0676e-01  4.8428 1.745e-06 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2001 -7.8164e-01  8.7300e-02 -8.9535 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2012  6.0336e-01  8.8781e-02  6.7961 3.297e-11 ***      
                fesisGreece.2006         5.0344e-01  7.3945e-02  6.8083 3.053e-11 ***      
                fesisItaly.2012         -4.1523e-01  7.9318e-02 -5.2350 2.501e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.2012        -5.2734e-01  7.5695e-02 -6.9667 1.112e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   66.218  1 4.441e-16 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.450  1  0.000245 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.18307      
                R-squared          0.96407      
                Log-lik.(n=544)  190.73777      
AR = 1

                Formula: log_imports_elec_twh ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13      
                EU_No_Zeros (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Mon Jan 30 16:16:02 2023       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 527       
                Sample: 1 to 527       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                               coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                      0.63827797  0.02911240  21.9246 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                lgdp_wb                  0.08839899  0.84325335   0.1048 0.9165558          
                lpop                    -1.39578131  3.07642305  -0.4537 0.6502573          
                lgdp_wb_sq               0.02823077  0.04009781   0.7040 0.4817602          
                hdd                      0.00017472  0.00021419   0.8157 0.4150736          
                cdd                     -0.00014651  0.00030656  -0.4779 0.6329322          
                idBelgium               -0.10081129  0.04141844  -2.4340 0.0153146 *        
                idCanada                -0.04422241  0.04798658  -0.9216 0.3572434          
                idDenmark               -0.28987789  0.05831865  -4.9706 9.442e-07 ***      
                idFinland               -0.07665931  0.04101791  -1.8689 0.0622702 .        
                idFrance                -0.34122617  0.04943946  -6.9019 1.713e-11 ***      
                idGermany                0.28718501  0.04785277   6.0014 3.974e-09 ***      
                idGreece                -0.58812351  0.07403501  -7.9439 1.526e-14 ***      
                idIreland               -0.85393295  0.07842139 -10.8890 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                idItaly                  0.31243908  0.04926394   6.3421 5.432e-10 ***      
                idNetherlands            0.03114896  0.04091351   0.7613 0.4468469          
                idPortugal              -0.35958633  0.05010975  -7.1760 2.903e-12 ***      
                idSpain                 -0.19019196  0.04371673  -4.3506 1.675e-05 ***      
                idSweden                -0.22058296  0.04266243  -5.1704 3.494e-07 ***      
                idSwitzerland            0.14773908  0.04309859   3.4279 0.0006630 ***      
                idUnitedKingdom          0.15150491  0.06972297   2.1730 0.0302945 *        
                idUnitedStates           0.58758162  0.09338605   6.2920 7.323e-10 ***      
                time1991                 0.36081479  1.12501953   0.3207 0.7485695          
                time1992                 0.37540974  1.17902133   0.3184 0.7503204          
                time1993                 0.32431846  1.12887821   0.2873 0.7740179          
                time1994                 0.28028812  1.01823602   0.2753 0.7832340          
                time1995                 0.35987122  0.95763304   0.3758 0.7072449          
                time1996                 0.26144062  0.98633880   0.2651 0.7910809          
                time1997                 0.27369199  0.85932940   0.3185 0.7502545          
                time1998                 0.31771081  0.69241834   0.4588 0.6465646          
                time1999                 0.33773926  0.59185937   0.5706 0.5685222          
                time2000                 0.20639109  0.51511846   0.4007 0.6888516          
                time2001                 0.17422942  0.45745612   0.3809 0.7034790          
                time2002                 0.19573755  0.41943913   0.4667 0.6409610          
                time2003                 0.16874337  0.41854762   0.4032 0.6870152          
                time2004                 0.12693385  0.34768425   0.3651 0.7152171          
                time2005                 0.27132251  0.23948648   1.1329 0.2578332          
                time2006                 0.13272870  0.18858864   0.7038 0.4819141          
                time2007                 0.08077377  0.18297399   0.4414 0.6590955          
                time2008                 0.05263805  0.20249355   0.2599 0.7950195          
                time2009                 0.00549456  0.33239901   0.0165 0.9868187          
                time2010                 0.11420839  0.22183725   0.5148 0.6069199          
                time2011                 0.09051472  0.17974580   0.5036 0.6148046          
                time2012                 0.17906459  0.13712811   1.3058 0.1922680          
                time2013                 0.02212824  0.14122183   0.1567 0.8755570          
                time2014                 0.04985465  0.12100424   0.4120 0.6805263          
                time2015                 0.05112036  0.08069466   0.6335 0.5267203          
                time2016                -0.00236040  0.07521879  -0.0314 0.9749798          
                iis63                   -0.71100275  0.17125791  -4.1516 3.936e-05 ***      
                iis70                    0.49861805  0.16996323   2.9337 0.0035174 **       
                iis94                   -0.78357870  0.17437143  -4.4937 8.870e-06 ***      
                iis95                    0.75282725  0.17169690   4.3846 1.442e-05 ***      
                iis97                   -0.83367923  0.17200275  -4.8469 1.719e-06 ***      
                iis174                   0.72891484  0.16930371   4.3054 2.040e-05 ***      
                iis181                   0.52270444  0.17903185   2.9196 0.0036770 **       
                iis271                   0.65436676  0.16819070   3.8906 0.0001148 ***      
                iis409                   0.72084562  0.16830822   4.2829 2.248e-05 ***      
                iis413                   0.66460605  0.16840042   3.9466 9.169e-05 ***      
                iis415                   0.57323251  0.16826391   3.4067 0.0007153 ***      
                iis478                  -0.61192626  0.17207383  -3.5562 0.0004154 ***      
                iis484                  -0.45127328  0.17239018  -2.6177 0.0091437 **       
                fesisCanada.2011        -0.21949933  0.06523930  -3.3645 0.0008311 ***      
                fesisDenmark.2007        0.17669388  0.06368270   2.7746 0.0057525 **       
                fesisFrance.2015         0.26155615  0.07701385   3.3962 0.0007426 ***      
                fesisGreece.2001         0.24946970  0.06561714   3.8019 0.0001630 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.1998 -0.33340725  0.08294302  -4.0197 6.810e-05 ***      
                fesisUnitedKingdom.2012  0.21502941  0.07164989   3.0011 0.0028365 **       
                fesisUnitedStates.1995  -0.26280903  0.08897858  -2.9536 0.0033020 **       
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df p-value      
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   0.40165  1  0.5262      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 1.62217  1  0.2028      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.16034      
                R-squared          0.97168      
                Log-lik.(n=527)  250.85640      

Model Overview

Note: Countries in which no break was detected are excluded from these overview plots.

by country

Elec Demand Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Emissions
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Exports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Generation
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Imports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

by model

Elec Demand Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Emissions
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Exports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Generation
w.o ETS

w. ETS

Imports Elec Twh
w.o ETS

w. ETS

by outcome variable

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Netherlands

NewZealand

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Emissions: Growth Rates

Note: As Moritz mentioned, when looking at growth rates what we understand as “breaks” are represented by the grey impulse lines. I have therefore excluded the plots analogous to the right-hand ones above.

Pop w. Temp

AR = 0

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:21:08 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lpop               -0.90533863  0.95376417 -0.9492 0.3429075          
                g.cdd                 0.00028133  0.00017097  1.6455 0.1004169          
                g.hdd                 0.12252549  0.04116742  2.9763 0.0030415 **       
                idAustria            -0.01073367  0.02302561 -0.4662 0.6412774          
                idBelgium            -0.02998070  0.02310896 -1.2974 0.1950314          
                idCanada             -0.02086813  0.02180256 -0.9571 0.3389017          
                idDenmark            -0.09020868  0.02385207 -3.7820 0.0001720 ***      
                idFinland            -0.02855049  0.02407204 -1.1860 0.2360991          
                idFrance             -0.03896398  0.02329040 -1.6730 0.0948833 .        
                idGermany            -0.03627101  0.02430831 -1.4921 0.1362199          
                idGreece             -0.03471279  0.02428933 -1.4291 0.1535126          
                idIreland            -0.01299665  0.02173241 -0.5980 0.5500569          
                idItaly              -0.02645550  0.02448240 -1.0806 0.2803353          
                idJapan              -0.00702265  0.02477142 -0.2835 0.7768981          
                idNetherlands        -0.01544810  0.02298083 -0.6722 0.5017180          
                idNewZealand          0.10243995  0.05415550  1.8916 0.0590525 .        
                idPortugal            0.01099978  0.02586395  0.4253 0.6707830          
                idSpain              -0.02495528  0.02268003 -1.1003 0.2716574          
                idSweden             -0.02601557  0.02324620 -1.1191 0.2635552          
                idSwitzerland        -0.00154799  0.02233260 -0.0693 0.9447631          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.04981095  0.02299384 -2.1663 0.0307040 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.01528634  0.02217785 -0.6893 0.4909390          
                time1990              0.05368508  0.02823090  1.9016 0.0577218 .        
                time1991              0.05812765  0.02966127  1.9597 0.0505159 .        
                time1992              0.02773355  0.02789401  0.9942 0.3205243          
                time1993             -0.01039867  0.02777209 -0.3744 0.7082245          
                time1994              0.07172515  0.02773034  2.5865 0.0099417 **       
                time1995              0.05686362  0.02744656  2.0718 0.0387338 *        
                time1996              0.02846453  0.02887134  0.9859 0.3245957          
                time1997              0.05096840  0.02825980  1.8036 0.0718273 .        
                time1998              0.04774865  0.02740134  1.7426 0.0819487 .        
                time1999              0.02928285  0.02713899  1.0790 0.2810461          
                time2000              0.02974041  0.02730987  1.0890 0.2766146          
                time2001              0.05773830  0.02768966  2.0852 0.0374961 *        
                time2002              0.06630316  0.02815264  2.3551 0.0188542 *        
                time2003              0.06157562  0.02818913  2.1844 0.0293415 *        
                time2004              0.02016106  0.02796311  0.7210 0.4712125          
                time2005              0.05233823  0.02836012  1.8455 0.0654852 .        
                time2006              0.00222078  0.02899065  0.0766 0.9389661          
                time2007              0.01749210  0.02822660  0.6197 0.5357011          
                time2008             -0.02130615  0.02844680 -0.7490 0.4541768          
                time2009             -0.04044691  0.02795370 -1.4469 0.1484677          
                time2010              0.05920640  0.02823350  2.0970 0.0364312 *        
                time2011             -0.00916574  0.02744043 -0.3340 0.7384850          
                time2012              0.00921377  0.02721380  0.3386 0.7350584          
                time2013             -0.02587488  0.02715143 -0.9530 0.3410019          
                time2014             -0.03780266  0.02798362 -1.3509 0.1772682          
                time2015              0.01736922  0.02768958  0.6273 0.5307244          
                time2016              0.00658984  0.02790066  0.2362 0.8133706          
                time2017              0.03076168  0.02771050  1.1101 0.2674201          
                time2018             -0.02781225  0.02809929 -0.9898 0.3226992          
                time2019             -0.05575433  0.02737757 -2.0365 0.0421622 *        
                time2020             -0.06392990  0.02759089 -2.3171 0.0208536 *        
                time2021              0.06761726  0.02654022  2.5477 0.0111041 *        
                iis116                1.12093686  0.09043222 12.3953 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis175                0.31433259  0.09047467  3.4743 0.0005512 ***      
                iis180                0.38643078  0.09070834  4.2601 2.390e-05 ***      
                iis190                0.39993832  0.09048860  4.4198 1.183e-05 ***      
                iis247               -0.41879794  0.09032776 -4.6364 4.399e-06 ***      
                iis248                0.42778968  0.09046177  4.7290 2.848e-06 ***      
                iis269                0.31659524  0.09027979  3.5068 0.0004892 ***      
                iis441               -0.32787487  0.09188391 -3.5684 0.0003895 ***      
                iis455               -0.36331274  0.09050490 -4.0143 6.759e-05 ***      
                iis470                0.36502163  0.09079147  4.0204 6.590e-05 ***      
                iis471               -0.31302604  0.09050539 -3.4586 0.0005834 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2018   -0.20759469  0.04772430 -4.3499 1.614e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.26438331  0.07328255 -3.6077 0.0003360 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.44859967  0.08133895  5.5152 5.290e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29360888  0.06560856 -4.4752 9.222e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   20.761  1 5.202e-06 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.777  1 1.361e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08656      
                R-squared          0.50863      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  691.38859      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:21:12 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                       coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lpop          -0.79574897  1.04217838 -0.7635  0.445449          
                g.cdd            0.00027994  0.00018983  1.4747  0.140831          
                g.hdd            0.11236440  0.04518756  2.4866  0.013176 *        
                idAustria       -0.00988618  0.02554960 -0.3869  0.698942          
                idBelgium       -0.02907573  0.02563995 -1.1340  0.257262          
                idCanada        -0.02071310  0.02423490 -0.8547  0.393080          
                idDenmark       -0.05483462  0.02591237 -2.1162  0.034756 *        
                idFinland       -0.02679293  0.02670161 -1.0034  0.316076          
                idFrance        -0.02815616  0.02565060 -1.0977  0.272799          
                idGermany       -0.03503732  0.02693098 -1.3010  0.193773          
                idGreece        -0.03350629  0.02690981 -1.2451  0.213585          
                idIreland       -0.01285978  0.02416010 -0.5323  0.594740          
                idItaly         -0.02519850  0.02711791 -0.9292  0.353161          
                idJapan         -0.00577374  0.02742694 -0.2105  0.833341          
                idNetherlands   -0.01457726  0.02550234 -0.5716  0.567811          
                idNewZealand    -0.00487182  0.02427266 -0.2007  0.840994          
                idPortugal      -0.03512806  0.02731987 -1.2858  0.199023          
                idSpain         -0.02417859  0.02517901 -0.9603  0.337320          
                idSweden        -0.02364141  0.02547406 -0.9281  0.353763          
                idSwitzerland   -0.00086497  0.02480814 -0.0349  0.972198          
                idUnitedKingdom -0.04898199  0.02551580 -1.9197  0.055389 .        
                idUnitedStates  -0.01476077  0.02464169 -0.5990  0.549395          
                time1990         0.05847220  0.03134188  1.8656  0.062598 .        
                time1991         0.07891120  0.03242927  2.4333  0.015261 *        
                time1992         0.03131562  0.03097529  1.0110  0.312443          
                time1993        -0.01934517  0.03061643 -0.6319  0.527730          
                time1994         0.06181496  0.03063024  2.0181  0.044040 *        
                time1995         0.04788610  0.03027046  1.5819  0.114207          
                time1996         0.06415710  0.03065572  2.0928  0.036798 *        
                time1997         0.02832226  0.03110236  0.9106  0.362876          
                time1998         0.06215034  0.02995482  2.0748  0.038444 *        
                time1999         0.02785867  0.03005264  0.9270  0.354314          
                time2000         0.02819983  0.03023738  0.9326  0.351406          
                time2001         0.05677427  0.03062275  1.8540  0.064247 .        
                time2002         0.06415472  0.03116097  2.0588  0.039957 *        
                time2003         0.06074447  0.03115252  1.9499  0.051668 .        
                time2004         0.01853889  0.03093729  0.5992  0.549246          
                time2005         0.05067045  0.03137838  1.6148  0.106893          
                time2006         0.02141177  0.03159715  0.6776  0.498264          
                time2007         0.01540518  0.03123740  0.4932  0.622083          
                time2008        -0.02248098  0.03143730 -0.7151  0.474831          
                time2009        -0.04182360  0.03091821 -1.3527  0.176672          
                time2010         0.04069978  0.03082599  1.3203  0.187252          
                time2011        -0.01178114  0.03042156 -0.3873  0.698703          
                time2012         0.00870264  0.03010540  0.2891  0.772629          
                time2013        -0.02720381  0.03006093 -0.9050  0.365864          
                time2014        -0.04055708  0.03100840 -1.3079  0.191411          
                time2015         0.01648937  0.03062116  0.5385  0.590441          
                time2016         0.00512089  0.03086477  0.1659  0.868283          
                time2017         0.02918155  0.03066610  0.9516  0.341701          
                time2018        -0.03967912  0.03101491 -1.2794  0.201282          
                time2019        -0.06772037  0.03024204 -2.2393  0.025515 *        
                time2020        -0.07666352  0.03050240 -2.5134  0.012228 *        
                time2021         0.05715190  0.02930564  1.9502  0.051633 .        
                iis116           1.11473349  0.10048661 11.0934 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis247          -0.41975264  0.10042955 -4.1796  3.37e-05 ***      
                iis248           0.40659964  0.10043880  4.0482  5.86e-05 ***      
                iis558           0.38083043  0.10055063  3.7874  0.000168 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   33.289  1 7.942e-09 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 41.299  1 1.307e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09624      
                R-squared          0.38079      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  618.11273      

AR = 1

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:22:08 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -0.23621708  0.03515868 -6.7186 4.644e-11 ***      
                d.lpop                4.03340052 12.39122625  0.3255 0.7449246          
                g.cdd                -0.01316226  0.01837737 -0.7162 0.4741627          
                g.hdd                -0.02633506  0.19391564 -0.1358 0.8920244          
                idAustria            -0.01406382  0.02061201 -0.6823 0.4953327          
                idBelgium            -0.03107005  0.02062907 -1.5061 0.1326155          
                idCanada             -0.02154026  0.02062450 -1.0444 0.2967645          
                idDenmark            -0.09894298  0.02125946 -4.6541 4.095e-06 ***      
                idFinland             0.04412463  0.02715150  1.6251 0.1047158          
                idFrance              0.12080459  0.08510454  1.4195 0.1563316          
                idGermany            -0.03258682  0.02064173 -1.5787 0.1149904          
                idGreece             -0.03263377  0.02063423 -1.5815 0.1143379          
                idIreland            -0.01652562  0.02062006 -0.8014 0.4232307          
                idItaly              -0.02249646  0.02062306 -1.0908 0.2758270          
                idJapan              -0.00054004  0.02061049 -0.0262 0.9791057          
                idNetherlands        -0.00847153  0.02061521 -0.4109 0.6812816          
                idNewZealand          0.15059540  0.06079614  2.4771 0.0135505 *        
                idPortugal            0.00557653  0.02188646  0.2548 0.7989790          
                idSpain              -0.02419887  0.02062727 -1.1731 0.2412502          
                idSweden              0.00826880  0.03996648  0.2069 0.8361708          
                idSwitzerland        -0.00270336  0.02079270 -0.1300 0.8966027          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.05547015  0.02067672 -2.6827 0.0075248 **       
                idUnitedStates       -0.01735897  0.02080675 -0.8343 0.4044816          
                time1991              0.00385184  0.15610530  0.0247 0.9803236          
                time1992             -0.01979670  0.14930517 -0.1326 0.8945650          
                time1993             -0.02879737  0.14227322 -0.2024 0.8396729          
                time1994              0.01425099  0.13790875  0.1033 0.9177341          
                time1995              0.02033136  0.13090739  0.1553 0.8766338          
                time1996             -0.00904750  0.13207880 -0.0685 0.9454122          
                time1997             -0.00902635  0.12596331 -0.0717 0.9429000          
                time1998              0.03905303  0.10951313  0.3566 0.7215254          
                time1999             -0.00409152  0.10393533 -0.0394 0.9686130          
                time2000             -0.01393291  0.11760777 -0.1185 0.9057396          
                time2001              0.01751475  0.13616395  0.1286 0.8976982          
                time2002              0.01837946  0.13725057  0.1339 0.8935220          
                time2003              0.02899244  0.11529659  0.2515 0.8015539          
                time2004             -0.02361759  0.11803319 -0.2001 0.8414829          
                time2005              0.02053936  0.12136656  0.1692 0.8656755          
                time2006             -0.04591554  0.12754133 -0.3600 0.7189832          
                time2007             -0.02925005  0.12365926 -0.2365 0.8131048          
                time2008             -0.07168681  0.13552008 -0.5290 0.5970386          
                time2009             -0.10206402  0.14302459 -0.7136 0.4757739          
                time2010             -0.00063807  0.14116975 -0.0045 0.9963954          
                time2011             -0.06193900  0.12437863 -0.4980 0.6186945          
                time2012             -0.03821173  0.13633415 -0.2803 0.7793695          
                time2013             -0.07589334  0.13386364 -0.5669 0.5709857          
                time2014             -0.11250070  0.12728197 -0.8839 0.3771576          
                time2015             -0.02683806  0.09768316 -0.2747 0.7836159          
                time2016             -0.04048271  0.14011279 -0.2889 0.7727456          
                time2017             -0.03200931  0.15008634 -0.2133 0.8311944          
                time2018             -0.07961406  0.17634980 -0.4515 0.6518417          
                time2019             -0.12470690  0.16809179 -0.7419 0.4584701          
                time2020             -0.15775597  0.17327348 -0.9104 0.3629919          
                time2021              0.00442094  0.16616044  0.0266 0.9787834          
                iis125                0.36854723  0.08529472  4.3209 1.849e-05 ***      
                iis130                0.37189307  0.08514324  4.3679 1.503e-05 ***      
                iis140                0.37416436  0.08501332  4.4012 1.296e-05 ***      
                iis163               -0.34513266  0.08671725 -3.9800 7.829e-05 ***      
                iis170               -0.41475716  0.08607046 -4.8188 1.877e-06 ***      
                iis171                0.36142180  0.08743402  4.1337 4.135e-05 ***      
                iis194                0.25491265  0.08512270  2.9946 0.0028729 **       
                iis440               -0.24554962  0.08535277 -2.8769 0.0041742 **       
                iis443                0.23301764  0.08506781  2.7392 0.0063613 **       
                iis454               -0.30597752  0.08516505 -3.5928 0.0003569 ***      
                iis502                0.49804052  0.09341212  5.3316 1.430e-07 ***      
                iis516                0.27255668  0.08551494  3.1872 0.0015190 **       
                iis528                0.40001845  0.09380787  4.2642 2.366e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005    -0.10009693  0.03167789 -3.1598 0.0016665 **       
                fesisFrance.1992     -0.35420167  0.09653464 -3.6692 0.0002673 ***      
                fesisFrance.1995      0.21733407  0.05107321  4.2553 2.459e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.33978525  0.07622777 -4.4575 1.008e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.49121483  0.07623883  6.4431 2.583e-10 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.30919525  0.06144111 -5.0324 6.597e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -0.25705289  0.05119614 -5.0209 6.984e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.1996     -0.18191294  0.05601047 -3.2478 0.0012347 **       
                fesisSweden.2001      0.15492715  0.04566958  3.3923 0.0007435 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    1.0435  1 0.3069974          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.1912  1 0.0002813 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08114      
                R-squared          0.49875      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  714.31742      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lpop + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:22:12 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -0.17943222  0.03539532 -5.0694 5.441e-07 ***      
                d.lpop                4.11794035 13.92322421  0.2958 0.7675232          
                g.cdd                -0.01383311  0.02065403 -0.6698 0.5032924          
                g.hdd                -0.02240746  0.21785727 -0.1029 0.9181160          
                idAustria            -0.01365869  0.02316839 -0.5895 0.5557383          
                idBelgium            -0.02965612  0.02318377 -1.2792 0.2013678          
                idCanada             -0.02031230  0.02317966 -0.8763 0.3812455          
                idDenmark             0.05860890  0.04144181  1.4142 0.1578484          
                idFinland            -0.01952512  0.02358433 -0.8279 0.4080900          
                idFrance             -0.02296149  0.02318577 -0.9903 0.3224444          
                idGermany            -0.03075312  0.02319519 -1.3258 0.1854361          
                idGreece             -0.03103530  0.02318843 -1.3384 0.1813134          
                idIreland            -0.01551103  0.02317564 -0.6693 0.5035932          
                idItaly              -0.02133335  0.02317836 -0.9204 0.3577625          
                idJapan              -0.00056129  0.02316702 -0.0242 0.9806794          
                idNetherlands        -0.00775848  0.02317128 -0.3348 0.7378781          
                idNewZealand          0.13431409  0.06813308  1.9713 0.0491785 *        
                idPortugal           -0.00570595  0.02381221 -0.2396 0.8107107          
                idSpain              -0.02285513  0.02318215 -0.9859 0.3246135          
                idSweden             -0.01372563  0.02317197 -0.5923 0.5538648          
                idSwitzerland         0.00814381  0.02320246  0.3510 0.7257293          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.05279923  0.02322676 -2.2732 0.0233936 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.01497216  0.02338217 -0.6403 0.5222255          
                time1991              0.04213611  0.17511439  0.2406 0.8099378          
                time1992             -0.03920821  0.16771436 -0.2338 0.8152419          
                time1993             -0.04432113  0.15981849 -0.2773 0.7816360          
                time1994              0.00034764  0.15490703  0.0022 0.9982102          
                time1995              0.01330070  0.14709142  0.0904 0.9279822          
                time1996              0.00685686  0.14819873  0.0463 0.9631132          
                time1997             -0.01700298  0.14151366 -0.1202 0.9044070          
                time1998              0.02937775  0.12275693  0.2393 0.8109483          
                time1999             -0.00035327  0.11665228 -0.0030 0.9975848          
                time2000             -0.02057803  0.13210916 -0.1558 0.8762744          
                time2001              0.01993180  0.15300879  0.1303 0.8964032          
                time2002              0.01810310  0.15422505  0.1174 0.9066004          
                time2003              0.02898543  0.12955567  0.2237 0.8230498          
                time2004             -0.02409642  0.13263744 -0.1817 0.8559067          
                time2005              0.02058905  0.13639127  0.1510 0.8800653          
                time2006             -0.04915601  0.14333559 -0.3429 0.7317703          
                time2007             -0.03330369  0.13896210 -0.2397 0.8106818          
                time2008             -0.07408469  0.15228996 -0.4865 0.6268244          
                time2009             -0.10286740  0.16071829 -0.6400 0.5224047          
                time2010             -0.00082591  0.15846277 -0.0052 0.9958433          
                time2011             -0.06672608  0.13977605 -0.4774 0.6332799          
                time2012             -0.03800418  0.15320627 -0.2481 0.8041803          
                time2013             -0.07913078  0.15042385 -0.5261 0.5990614          
                time2014             -0.11292042  0.14302214 -0.7895 0.4301377          
                time2015             -0.02458914  0.10976736 -0.2240 0.8228306          
                time2016             -0.04306940  0.15746008 -0.2735 0.7845504          
                time2017             -0.03438104  0.16865599 -0.2039 0.8385428          
                time2018             -0.08286908  0.19817112 -0.4182 0.6759845          
                time2019             -0.12614702  0.18887865 -0.6679 0.5044911          
                time2020             -0.15716228  0.19469187 -0.8072 0.4198751          
                time2021              0.00619614  0.18669043  0.0332 0.9735354          
                iis140                0.38976079  0.09576476  4.0700 5.382e-05 ***      
                iis170               -0.44482176  0.09529288 -4.6679 3.816e-06 ***      
                iis171                0.35035473  0.09664635  3.6251 0.0003153 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1997    -0.16250268  0.04284960 -3.7924 0.0001655 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.30925750  0.08549381 -3.6173 0.0003247 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.46711199  0.08549627  5.4635 7.047e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29926106  0.06889159 -4.3439 1.663e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -0.23363640  0.05718102 -4.0859 5.036e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.6135  1   0.01012 *        
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.4352  1 8.538e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09121      
                R-squared          0.35036      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  634.93804      

Standard Controls

AR = 0

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:44:53 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                           coef  std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb            -3.1350927  3.1396766 -0.9985 0.3184398          
                d.lpop               -1.1408070  0.9726524 -1.1729 0.2413311          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          0.0645870  0.0586931  1.1004 0.2716130          
                idAustria            -0.0060396  0.0236281 -0.2556 0.7983440          
                idBelgium            -0.0254081  0.0236590 -1.0739 0.2833060          
                idCanada             -0.0203857  0.0221860 -0.9189 0.3585585          
                idDenmark            -0.0733300  0.0243241 -3.0147 0.0026863 **       
                idFinland            -0.0182887  0.0246111 -0.7431 0.4577209          
                idFrance             -0.0368334  0.0237444 -1.5512 0.1213960          
                idGermany            -0.0354497  0.0247690 -1.4312 0.1529148          
                idGreece             -0.0275650  0.0250552 -1.1002 0.2717210          
                idIreland            -0.0143867  0.0241394 -0.5960 0.5514227          
                idItaly              -0.0208881  0.0251263 -0.8313 0.4061380          
                idJapan              -0.0048048  0.0253135 -0.1898 0.8495245          
                idNetherlands        -0.0127448  0.0234055 -0.5445 0.5862940          
                idNewZealand          0.1216560  0.0553040  2.1998 0.0282227 *        
                idPortugal            0.0173402  0.0265890  0.6522 0.5145622          
                idSpain              -0.0219192  0.0231029 -0.9488 0.3431399          
                idSweden             -0.0161690  0.0234192 -0.6904 0.4902129          
                idSwitzerland         0.0029271  0.0228581  0.1281 0.8981489          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.0491708  0.0234260 -2.0990 0.0362563 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.0241518  0.0234237 -1.0311 0.3029358          
                time1990              0.0425208  0.0291076  1.4608 0.1446158          
                time1991              0.0845328  0.0293890  2.8763 0.0041731 **       
                time1992              0.0169578  0.0284944  0.5951 0.5519942          
                time1993             -0.0105121  0.0282665 -0.3719 0.7101099          
                time1994              0.0538802  0.0288582  1.8671 0.0624037 .        
                time1995              0.0472093  0.0287474  1.6422 0.1010958          
                time1996              0.0299856  0.0297592  1.0076 0.3140679          
                time1997              0.0207459  0.0294949  0.7034 0.4821095          
                time1998              0.0321039  0.0289362  1.1095 0.2676942          
                time1999              0.0167225  0.0288419  0.5798 0.5622791          
                time2000              0.0103152  0.0293847  0.3510 0.7256882          
                time2001              0.0555726  0.0285484  1.9466 0.0520710 .        
                time2002              0.0512634  0.0288533  1.7767 0.0761500 .        
                time2003              0.0625884  0.0288395  2.1702 0.0304000 *        
                time2004              0.0057064  0.0293699  0.1943 0.8460141          
                time2005              0.0396693  0.0294477  1.3471 0.1784772          
                time2006             -0.0143028  0.0303788 -0.4708 0.6379523          
                time2007             -0.0016852  0.0294913 -0.0571 0.9544530          
                time2008             -0.0180232  0.0289028 -0.6236 0.5331535          
                time2009             -0.0249259  0.0292690 -0.8516 0.3947848          
                time2010              0.0612127  0.0289991  2.1108 0.0352189 *        
                time2011             -0.0329909  0.0276554 -1.1929 0.2333924          
                time2012              0.0158960  0.0275601  0.5768 0.5643178          
                time2013             -0.0308761  0.0277539 -1.1125 0.2663919          
                time2014             -0.0634707  0.0283756 -2.2368 0.0256833 *        
                time2015              0.0118713  0.0288982  0.4108 0.6813753          
                time2016             -0.0020533  0.0288227 -0.0712 0.9432333          
                time2017              0.0169671  0.0289767  0.5855 0.5584129          
                time2018             -0.0305213  0.0286821 -1.0641 0.2877208          
                time2019             -0.0674908  0.0282638 -2.3879 0.0172691 *        
                time2020             -0.0563348  0.0294840 -1.9107 0.0565437 .        
                time2021              0.0556418  0.0295972  1.8800 0.0606201 .        
                iis117                1.1227572  0.0917480 12.2374 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis181                0.3801155  0.0920884  4.1277 4.209e-05 ***      
                iis191                0.3895118  0.0919096  4.2380 2.629e-05 ***      
                iis248               -0.4277926  0.0917430 -4.6629 3.884e-06 ***      
                iis249                0.4274931  0.0919168  4.6509 4.109e-06 ***      
                iis270                0.3203600  0.0917539  3.4915 0.0005174 ***      
                iis442               -0.2886445  0.0924110 -3.1235 0.0018776 **       
                iis456               -0.3596849  0.0919539 -3.9116 0.0001027 ***      
                iis471                0.3615785  0.0921818  3.9224 9.830e-05 ***      
                iis472               -0.3103655  0.0919342 -3.3760 0.0007855 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2018   -0.2107832  0.0484906 -4.3469 1.634e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2867605  0.0752853 -3.8090 0.0001546 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.4674166  0.0829637  5.6340 2.765e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.3031375  0.0667202 -4.5434 6.756e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   18.214  1 1.974e-05 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 29.859  1 4.647e-08 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08793      
                R-squared          0.49115      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  681.84175      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:44:54 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 640       
                Sample: 1 to 640       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                       coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb       -4.45842311  3.41696412 -1.3048  0.192480          
                d.lpop          -0.82532134  1.04997102 -0.7860  0.432163          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq     0.08785803  0.06393628  1.3741  0.169924          
                idAustria       -0.00292956  0.02590901 -0.1131  0.910013          
                idBelgium       -0.02240117  0.02594188 -0.8635  0.388211          
                idCanada        -0.02005955  0.02437193 -0.8231  0.410811          
                idDenmark       -0.04580018  0.02628220 -1.7426  0.081926 .        
                idFinland       -0.01391416  0.02697386 -0.5158  0.606163          
                idFrance        -0.02518428  0.02585252 -0.9742  0.330386          
                idGermany       -0.03305475  0.02713569 -1.2181  0.223669          
                idGreece        -0.02415476  0.02744780 -0.8800  0.379209          
                idIreland       -0.00831513  0.02643688 -0.3145  0.753233          
                idItaly         -0.01813347  0.02752724 -0.6587  0.510319          
                idJapan         -0.00215262  0.02772417 -0.0776  0.938138          
                idNetherlands   -0.01009702  0.02566871 -0.3934  0.694198          
                idNewZealand     0.00388948  0.02534449  0.1535  0.878085          
                idPortugal      -0.02489983  0.02776519 -0.8968  0.370196          
                idSpain         -0.02008571  0.02535120 -0.7923  0.428510          
                idSweden        -0.01190028  0.02538861 -0.4687  0.639442          
                idSwitzerland    0.00457649  0.02509627  0.1824  0.855366          
                idUnitedKingdom -0.04776157  0.02569927 -1.8585  0.063606 .        
                idUnitedStates  -0.02598626  0.02571277 -1.0106  0.312610          
                time1990         0.04688732  0.03191212  1.4693  0.142302          
                time1991         0.08637252  0.03224275  2.6788  0.007597 **       
                time1992         0.01942172  0.03126243  0.6212  0.534680          
                time1993        -0.02226433  0.03082031 -0.7224  0.470344          
                time1994         0.04414984  0.03154644  1.3995  0.162190          
                time1995         0.03778719  0.03143336  1.2021  0.229799          
                time1996         0.06606512  0.03116222  2.1200  0.034425 *        
                time1997        -0.00066214  0.03206769 -0.0206  0.983533          
                time1998         0.04703582  0.03136833  1.4995  0.134294          
                time1999         0.01588070  0.03160749  0.5024  0.615552          
                time2000         0.00919167  0.03219977  0.2855  0.775395          
                time2001         0.05312581  0.03125395  1.6998  0.089701 .        
                time2002         0.04844407  0.03157298  1.5344  0.125486          
                time2003         0.05942974  0.03155434  1.8834  0.060143 .        
                time2004         0.00346755  0.03215638  0.1078  0.914165          
                time2005         0.03677587  0.03222985  1.1410  0.254318          
                time2006         0.00368889  0.03281136  0.1124  0.910523          
                time2007        -0.00422817  0.03228234 -0.1310  0.895841          
                time2008        -0.02245629  0.03158924 -0.7109  0.477441          
                time2009        -0.03078621  0.03194887 -0.9636  0.335642          
                time2010         0.04003731  0.03135970  1.2767  0.202213          
                time2011        -0.03626525  0.03028027 -1.1977  0.231540          
                time2012         0.01180419  0.03015387  0.3915  0.695597          
                time2013        -0.03438628  0.03037539 -1.1320  0.258082          
                time2014        -0.06622142  0.03106622 -2.1316  0.033456 *        
                time2015         0.00983466  0.03164700  0.3108  0.756093          
                time2016        -0.00519091  0.03154206 -0.1646  0.869339          
                time2017         0.01440682  0.03172648  0.4541  0.649930          
                time2018        -0.04364990  0.03133948 -1.3928  0.164209          
                time2019        -0.08077136  0.03087893 -2.6157  0.009134 **       
                time2020        -0.07211777  0.03213128 -2.2445  0.025177 *        
                time2021         0.04472027  0.03240383  1.3801  0.168088          
                iis117           1.11614197  0.10075670 11.0776 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis248          -0.42739820  0.10079301 -4.2404 2.595e-05 ***      
                iis249           0.40811010  0.10083472  4.0473 5.881e-05 ***      
                iis559           0.40290351  0.10088178  3.9938 7.335e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   29.529  1 5.509e-08 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 41.871  1 9.751e-11 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09661      
                R-squared          0.37500      
                Log-lik.(n=640)  616.59638      

AR = 1

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:45:38 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -2.3566e-01  3.5000e-02 -6.7333 4.205e-11 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -4.6646e+03  1.3275e+03 -3.5137 0.0004785 ***      
                d.lpop               -7.3213e+00  1.7007e+00 -4.3049 1.980e-05 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          7.7998e+01  2.2179e+01  3.5167 0.0004732 ***      
                idAustria            -1.4060e-02  2.0549e-02 -0.6842 0.4941398          
                idBelgium            -3.1056e-02  2.0566e-02 -1.5100 0.1316082          
                idCanada             -2.1528e-02  2.0562e-02 -1.0470 0.2955615          
                idDenmark            -9.9014e-02  2.1194e-02 -4.6718 3.763e-06 ***      
                idFinland             4.4178e-02  2.7067e-02  1.6322 0.1032203          
                idFrance              1.2180e-01  8.4692e-02  1.4381 0.1509754          
                idGermany            -3.2569e-02  2.0579e-02 -1.5826 0.1140835          
                idGreece             -3.2618e-02  2.0571e-02 -1.5856 0.1134082          
                idIreland            -1.6516e-02  2.0557e-02 -0.8034 0.4220958          
                idItaly              -2.2485e-02  2.0560e-02 -1.0936 0.2746065          
                idJapan              -5.4025e-04  2.0548e-02 -0.0263 0.9790339          
                idNetherlands        -8.4645e-03  2.0553e-02 -0.4118 0.6806117          
                idNewZealand          1.5126e-01  6.0556e-02  2.4979 0.0127874 *        
                idPortugal            5.5842e-03  2.1820e-02  0.2559 0.7981055          
                idSpain              -2.4186e-02  2.0565e-02 -1.1761 0.2400716          
                idSweden              8.3105e-03  3.9832e-02  0.2086 0.8348098          
                idSwitzerland        -2.7337e-03  2.0729e-02 -0.1319 0.8951292          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.5444e-02  2.0614e-02 -2.6897 0.0073707 **       
                idUnitedStates       -1.7907e-02  2.0557e-02 -0.8711 0.3841027          
                time1991             -7.7901e+00  2.2830e+00 -3.4122 0.0006922 ***      
                time1992              3.5024e+00  9.6804e-01  3.6180 0.0003244 ***      
                time1993              9.9064e+00  2.8224e+00  3.5099 0.0004853 ***      
                time1994              1.6357e+01  4.6590e+00  3.5108 0.0004836 ***      
                time1995              9.7936e+00  2.7742e+00  3.5302 0.0004502 ***      
                time1996              5.8967e+00  1.6598e+00  3.5526 0.0004144 ***      
                time1997              1.5005e+01  4.2820e+00  3.5043 0.0004954 ***      
                time1998              1.3480e+01  3.8373e+00  3.5130 0.0004798 ***      
                time1999              1.7325e+01  4.9560e+00  3.4957 0.0005112 ***      
                time2000              1.6984e+01  4.8568e+00  3.4970 0.0005088 ***      
                time2001              5.9757e+00  1.6779e+00  3.5613 0.0004011 ***      
                time2002              9.8161e+00  2.7829e+00  3.5273 0.0004551 ***      
                time2003              5.8791e+00  1.6513e+00  3.5604 0.0004025 ***      
                time2004              9.7565e+00  2.7812e+00  3.5080 0.0004885 ***      
                time2005              9.9904e+00  2.8420e+00  3.5153 0.0004757 ***      
                time2006              8.0994e+00  2.3092e+00  3.5075 0.0004895 ***      
                time2007              6.3360e+00  1.7994e+00  3.5212 0.0004655 ***      
                time2008              3.0789e+00  8.6853e-01  3.5449 0.0004263 ***      
                time2009             -9.0059e+00  2.6067e+00 -3.4550 0.0005931 ***      
                time2010              9.3746e+00  2.6639e+00  3.5191 0.0004691 ***      
                time2011              9.3240e+00  2.6695e+00  3.4928 0.0005166 ***      
                time2012              5.2434e+00  1.4843e+00  3.5326 0.0004462 ***      
                time2013              6.7803e+00  1.9379e+00  3.4987 0.0005056 ***      
                time2014              8.1657e+00  2.3504e+00  3.4742 0.0005529 ***      
                time2015              1.9326e+00  5.3908e-01  3.5851 0.0003671 ***      
                time2016              2.9187e+00  8.1422e-01  3.5847 0.0003677 ***      
                time2017              8.5328e+00  2.4266e+00  3.5164 0.0004737 ***      
                time2018              6.7224e+00  1.9154e+00  3.5096 0.0004857 ***      
                iis125                3.6951e-01  8.4876e-02  4.3535 1.600e-05 ***      
                iis130                3.7260e-01  8.4877e-02  4.3899 1.362e-05 ***      
                iis140                3.7566e-01  8.4734e-02  4.4334 1.122e-05 ***      
                iis163               -3.4578e-01  8.6445e-02 -4.0000 7.205e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.1584e-01  8.5795e-02 -4.8469 1.636e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.6301e-01  8.7147e-02  4.1654 3.611e-05 ***      
                iis194                2.5433e-01  8.4854e-02  2.9972 0.0028483 **       
                iis440               -2.4507e-01  8.5089e-02 -2.8802 0.0041305 **       
                iis443                2.3312e-01  8.4790e-02  2.7494 0.0061687 **       
                iis454               -3.0676e-01  8.4896e-02 -3.6133 0.0003302 ***      
                iis502                4.9873e-01  9.3122e-02  5.3557 1.257e-07 ***      
                iis516                2.7177e-01  8.5245e-02  3.1881 0.0015138 **       
                iis528                4.0033e-01  9.3370e-02  4.2876 2.135e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005    -1.0017e-01  3.1577e-02 -3.1722 0.0015978 **       
                fesisFrance.1992     -3.5519e-01  9.6105e-02 -3.6959 0.0002412 ***      
                fesisFrance.1995      2.1734e-01  5.0917e-02  4.2685 2.320e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.4079e-01  7.5948e-02 -4.4872 8.801e-06 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  4.9163e-01  7.6005e-02  6.4685 2.199e-10 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -3.0929e-01  6.1253e-02 -5.0494 6.045e-07 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.5694e-01  5.1039e-02 -5.0342 6.525e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.1996     -1.8204e-01  5.5829e-02 -3.2606 0.0011810 **       
                fesisSweden.2001      1.5503e-01  4.5530e-02  3.4051 0.0007099 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    1.0742  1 0.2999913          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.1815  1 0.0002827 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08090      
                R-squared          0.49816      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  715.79645      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 00:45:40 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 620       
                Sample: 1 to 620       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -1.7837e-01  3.5240e-02 -5.0616 5.645e-07 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -4.8120e+03  1.4921e+03 -3.2250 0.0013330 **       
                d.lpop               -7.1644e+00  1.9083e+00 -3.7544 0.0001919 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          8.0461e+01  2.4928e+01  3.2277 0.0013207 **       
                idAustria            -1.3651e-02  2.3105e-02 -0.5908 0.5548729          
                idBelgium            -2.9630e-02  2.3120e-02 -1.2815 0.2005321          
                idCanada             -2.0289e-02  2.3116e-02 -0.8777 0.3804766          
                idDenmark             5.9021e-02  4.1321e-02  1.4283 0.1537533          
                idFinland            -1.9525e-02  2.3520e-02 -0.8301 0.4068149          
                idFrance             -2.2934e-02  2.3122e-02 -0.9918 0.3217050          
                idGermany            -3.0719e-02  2.3132e-02 -1.3280 0.1847182          
                idGreece             -3.1005e-02  2.3125e-02 -1.3408 0.1805349          
                idIreland            -1.5492e-02  2.3112e-02 -0.6703 0.5029441          
                idItaly              -2.1312e-02  2.3115e-02 -0.9220 0.3569329          
                idJapan              -5.6169e-04  2.3104e-02 -0.0243 0.9806126          
                idNetherlands        -7.7451e-03  2.3108e-02 -0.3352 0.7376197          
                idNewZealand          1.3600e-01  6.7903e-02  2.0028 0.0456778 *        
                idPortugal           -5.6950e-03  2.3747e-02 -0.2398 0.8105581          
                idSpain              -2.2830e-02  2.3119e-02 -0.9875 0.3238170          
                idSweden             -1.3711e-02  2.3109e-02 -0.5933 0.5531924          
                idSwitzerland         8.1053e-03  2.3139e-02  0.3503 0.7262517          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.2749e-02  2.3163e-02 -2.2773 0.0231435 *        
                idUnitedStates       -1.6885e-02  2.3112e-02 -0.7306 0.4653558          
                time1991             -8.0077e+00  2.5661e+00 -3.1206 0.0018976 **       
                time1992              3.5905e+00  1.0881e+00  3.2998 0.0010288 **       
                time1993              1.0203e+01  3.1723e+00  3.2161 0.0013741 **       
                time1994              1.6859e+01  5.2364e+00  3.2196 0.0013579 **       
                time1995              1.0094e+01  3.1181e+00  3.2371 0.0012787 **       
                time1996              6.0969e+00  1.8656e+00  3.2681 0.0011488 **       
                time1997              1.5472e+01  4.8127e+00  3.2147 0.0013808 **       
                time1998              1.3895e+01  4.3129e+00  3.2217 0.0013481 **       
                time1999              1.7878e+01  5.5703e+00  3.2095 0.0014054 **       
                time2000              1.7516e+01  5.4587e+00  3.2089 0.0014088 **       
                time2001              6.1633e+00  1.8859e+00  3.2680 0.0011492 **       
                time2002              1.0124e+01  3.1278e+00  3.2368 0.0012802 **       
                time2003              6.0623e+00  1.8559e+00  3.2664 0.0011557 **       
                time2004              1.0064e+01  3.1259e+00  3.2196 0.0013578 **       
                time2005              1.0304e+01  3.1943e+00  3.2259 0.0013290 **       
                time2006              8.3518e+00  2.5954e+00  3.2179 0.0013657 **       
                time2007              6.5315e+00  2.0225e+00  3.2295 0.0013126 **       
                time2008              3.1727e+00  9.7621e-01  3.2500 0.0012231 **       
                time2009             -9.2960e+00  2.9297e+00 -3.1730 0.0015914 **       
                time2010              9.6685e+00  2.9941e+00  3.2292 0.0013139 **       
                time2011              9.6152e+00  3.0004e+00  3.2047 0.0014290 **       
                time2012              5.4074e+00  1.6683e+00  3.2414 0.0012601 **       
                time2013              6.9921e+00  2.1782e+00  3.2101 0.0014027 **       
                time2014              8.4259e+00  2.6417e+00  3.1896 0.0015041 **       
                time2015              1.9940e+00  6.0589e-01  3.2910 0.0010609 **       
                time2016              3.0056e+00  9.1517e-01  3.2842 0.0010864 **       
                time2017              8.7994e+00  2.7273e+00  3.2264 0.0013267 **       
                time2018              6.9308e+00  2.1529e+00  3.2193 0.0013592 **       
                iis140                3.9135e-01  9.5480e-02  4.0988 4.767e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.4600e-01  9.5015e-02 -4.6940 3.370e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.5213e-01  9.6358e-02  3.6544 0.0002820 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1997    -1.6300e-01  4.2722e-02 -3.8154 0.0001511 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.1133e-01  8.5221e-02 -3.6532 0.0002833 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  4.6745e-01  8.5260e-02  5.4826 6.344e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9930e-01  6.8701e-02 -4.3566 1.571e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.3351e-01  5.7024e-02 -4.0949 4.845e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df  p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.8468  1  0.00888 **       
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.5185  1 8.17e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09096      
                R-squared          0.34932      
                Log-lik.(n=620)  636.11219      

Standard Controls w. Temp

AR = 0

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:19:18 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb            -2.98274353  3.09053623 -0.9651 0.3348946          
                d.lpop               -1.10437998  0.95844186 -1.1523 0.2496965          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          0.06159057  0.05777955  1.0660 0.2868955          
                g.cdd                 0.00028884  0.00017082  1.6909 0.0914127 .        
                g.hdd                 0.12148326  0.04113144  2.9535 0.0032716 **       
                idAustria            -0.00537193  0.02323127 -0.2312 0.8172140          
                idBelgium            -0.02506704  0.02326290 -1.0776 0.2816901          
                idCanada             -0.01865244  0.02181651 -0.8550 0.3929288          
                idDenmark            -0.08447756  0.02407491 -3.5089 0.0004855 ***      
                idFinland            -0.02228241  0.02434267 -0.9154 0.3603887          
                idFrance             -0.03611585  0.02334615 -1.5470 0.1224269          
                idGermany            -0.03469285  0.02435760 -1.4243 0.1549050          
                idGreece             -0.02675075  0.02463666 -1.0858 0.2780234          
                idIreland            -0.01340612  0.02373233 -0.5649 0.5723727          
                idItaly              -0.02001450  0.02470701 -0.8101 0.4182372          
                idJapan              -0.00288882  0.02489176 -0.1161 0.9076496          
                idNetherlands        -0.01250095  0.02301396 -0.5432 0.5872123          
                idNewZealand          0.11508736  0.05450777  2.1114 0.0351747 *        
                idPortugal            0.01779339  0.02614816  0.6805 0.4964757          
                idSpain              -0.02176098  0.02271555 -0.9580 0.3384819          
                idSweden             -0.02217730  0.02334975 -0.9498 0.3426242          
                idSwitzerland         0.00355039  0.02247267  0.1580 0.8745233          
                idUnitedKingdom      -0.04874390  0.02303753 -2.1158 0.0347923 *        
                idUnitedStates       -0.02196256  0.02324705 -0.9447 0.3451903          
                time1990              0.04149716  0.02899914  1.4310 0.1529861          
                time1991              0.05265803  0.02976672  1.7690 0.0774265 .        
                time1992              0.02122204  0.02807377  0.7559 0.4499996          
                time1993             -0.01442496  0.02782223 -0.5185 0.6043330          
                time1994              0.05892884  0.02858601  2.0615 0.0397139 *        
                time1995              0.04473051  0.02827578  1.5819 0.1142205          
                time1996              0.01699300  0.02953957  0.5753 0.5653419          
                time1997              0.03581433  0.02949245  1.2144 0.2251165          
                time1998              0.03392812  0.02845829  1.1922 0.2336786          
                time1999              0.01396276  0.02844281  0.4909 0.6236823          
                time2000              0.01239875  0.02890099  0.4290 0.6680802          
                time2001              0.04834068  0.02813405  1.7182 0.0863002 .        
                time2002              0.05803582  0.02848251  2.0376 0.0420533 *        
                time2003              0.05338281  0.02849782  1.8732 0.0615507 .        
                time2004              0.00668073  0.02888296  0.2313 0.8171622          
                time2005              0.04105322  0.02896348  1.4174 0.1569104          
                time2006             -0.01164423  0.02990350 -0.3894 0.6971312          
                time2007              0.00431801  0.02908127  0.1485 0.8820160          
                time2008             -0.02460719  0.02847385 -0.8642 0.3878412          
                time2009             -0.02781738  0.02880416 -0.9657 0.3345844          
                time2010              0.04796099  0.02883159  1.6635 0.0967664 .        
                time2011             -0.01702111  0.02774715 -0.6134 0.5398335          
                time2012              0.00609570  0.02728378  0.2234 0.8232902          
                time2013             -0.03142094  0.02729045 -1.1514 0.2500716          
                time2014             -0.04766817  0.02844115 -1.6760 0.0942830 .        
                time2015              0.00483751  0.02850062  0.1697 0.8652802          
                time2016             -0.00308325  0.02834095 -0.1088 0.9134065          
                time2017              0.01812253  0.02849703  0.6359 0.5250688          
                time2018             -0.03947290  0.02875133 -1.3729 0.1703231          
                time2019             -0.06520486  0.02780617 -2.3450 0.0193715 *        
                time2020             -0.04559936  0.02927847 -1.5574 0.1199239          
                time2021              0.04420816  0.02935463  1.5060 0.1326223          
                iis116                1.11834350  0.09033129 12.3805 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis175                0.31164598  0.09036989  3.4486 0.0006054 ***      
                iis180                0.38659990  0.09059715  4.2672 2.319e-05 ***      
                iis190                0.39844913  0.09041353  4.4070 1.254e-05 ***      
                iis247               -0.41958434  0.09023391 -4.6500 4.133e-06 ***      
                iis248                0.42675151  0.09041570  4.7199 2.975e-06 ***      
                iis269                0.31080882  0.09024756  3.4440 0.0006155 ***      
                iis441               -0.32874343  0.09183052 -3.5799 0.0003732 ***      
                iis455               -0.36253565  0.09040165 -4.0103 6.875e-05 ***      
                iis470                0.36875788  0.09070090  4.0656 5.466e-05 ***      
                iis471               -0.31023412  0.09039930 -3.4318 0.0006432 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2018   -0.20865647  0.04768933 -4.3753 1.443e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.27175856  0.07428704 -3.6582 0.0002776 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  0.45551415  0.08164705  5.5791 3.746e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29948845  0.06560163 -4.5653 6.120e-06 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   21.708  1 3.174e-06 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.628  1 1.470e-07 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08644      
                R-squared          0.51164      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  693.22970      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:19:20 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 639       
                Sample: 1 to 639       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                       coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                d.lgdp_wb       -4.30109024  3.40646912 -1.2626  0.207233          
                d.lpop          -0.97799600  1.04700759 -0.9341  0.350648          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq     0.08500802  0.06374447  1.3336  0.182868          
                g.cdd            0.00028888  0.00018977  1.5223  0.128474          
                g.hdd            0.11064888  0.04517963  2.4491  0.014617 *        
                idAustria       -0.00373560  0.02579203 -0.1448  0.884891          
                idBelgium       -0.02354815  0.02582666 -0.9118  0.362266          
                idCanada        -0.01889609  0.02426545 -0.7787  0.436461          
                idDenmark       -0.04834584  0.02618258 -1.8465  0.065331 .        
                idFinland       -0.01964097  0.02701777 -0.7270  0.467541          
                idFrance        -0.02622474  0.02573705 -1.0189  0.308653          
                idGermany       -0.03435853  0.02701628 -1.2718  0.203965          
                idGreece        -0.02531710  0.02732573 -0.9265  0.354576          
                idIreland       -0.00815809  0.02631637 -0.3100  0.756672          
                idItaly         -0.01930485  0.02740461 -0.7044  0.481443          
                idJapan         -0.00252207  0.02759823 -0.0914  0.927218          
                idNetherlands   -0.01129572  0.02555484 -0.4420  0.658641          
                idNewZealand     0.00455463  0.02523081  0.1805  0.856808          
                idPortugal      -0.02759581  0.02765896 -0.9977  0.318833          
                idSpain         -0.02113422  0.02523823 -0.8374  0.402719          
                idSweden        -0.01892073  0.02561242 -0.7387  0.460369          
                idSwitzerland    0.00435228  0.02498173  0.1742  0.861755          
                idUnitedKingdom -0.04880508  0.02558795 -1.9073  0.056970 .        
                idUnitedStates  -0.02443777  0.02583649 -0.9459  0.344613          
                time1990         0.04768365  0.03218263  1.4817  0.138975          
                time1991         0.07360748  0.03257271  2.2598  0.024205 *        
                time1992         0.02501749  0.03118641  0.8022  0.422771          
                time1993        -0.02349596  0.03069973 -0.7653  0.444377          
                time1994         0.05034728  0.03167455  1.5895  0.112489          
                time1995         0.03740442  0.03129693  1.1951  0.232519          
                time1996         0.05441419  0.03144418  1.7305  0.084074 .        
                time1997         0.01501924  0.03254427  0.4615  0.644612          
                time1998         0.04959450  0.03123730  1.5877  0.112907          
                time1999         0.01428423  0.03156252  0.4526  0.651028          
                time2000         0.01246054  0.03207241  0.3885  0.697780          
                time2001         0.04818286  0.03116753  1.5459  0.122667          
                time2002         0.05656097  0.03157527  1.7913  0.073766 .        
                time2003         0.05299176  0.03154218  1.6800  0.093491 .        
                time2004         0.00612553  0.03202272  0.1913  0.848368          
                time2005         0.03986573  0.03210207  1.2418  0.214797          
                time2006         0.00833630  0.03270905  0.2549  0.798920          
                time2007         0.00310299  0.03224852  0.0962  0.923378          
                time2008        -0.02622882  0.03148934 -0.8329  0.405221          
                time2009        -0.03084864  0.03182248 -0.9694  0.332752          
                time2010         0.02954675  0.03154034  0.9368  0.349256          
                time2011        -0.02015522  0.03079241 -0.6546  0.513016          
                time2012         0.00464269  0.03019454  0.1538  0.877853          
                time2013        -0.03317173  0.03024117 -1.0969  0.273138          
                time2014        -0.05013821  0.03156071 -1.5886  0.112690          
                time2015         0.00506010  0.03158275  0.1602  0.872766          
                time2016        -0.00425752  0.03140117 -0.1356  0.892197          
                time2017         0.01717553  0.03159606  0.5436  0.586928          
                time2018        -0.05093476  0.03179704 -1.6019  0.109730          
                time2019        -0.07694378  0.03076766 -2.5008  0.012666 *        
                time2020        -0.05983853  0.03233065 -1.8508  0.064703 .        
                time2021         0.03508876  0.03251236  1.0792  0.280928          
                iis116           1.11265165  0.10043663 11.0781 < 2.2e-16 ***      
                iis247          -0.41938569  0.10037702 -4.1781 3.393e-05 ***      
                iis248           0.40753060  0.10043219  4.0578 5.634e-05 ***      
                iis558           0.38676660  0.10064040  3.8431  0.000135 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                  Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)   33.518  1 7.060e-09 ***      
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 40.480  1 1.986e-10 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09617      
                R-squared          0.38389      
                Log-lik.(n=639)  619.61417      

AR = 1

p = 0.01

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:20:49 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -2.4582e-01  3.5287e-02 -6.9663 9.483e-12 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -2.4432e+01  3.2099e+01 -0.7611 0.4469036          
                d.lpop                2.5197e+00  1.2568e+01  0.2005 0.8411724          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          4.2633e-01  5.7152e-01  0.7460 0.4560159          
                g.cdd                -1.2599e-02  1.8451e-02 -0.6828 0.4950098          
                g.hdd                 5.4486e-03  1.9547e-01  0.0279 0.9777723          
                idAustria            -1.4132e-02  2.0631e-02 -0.6850 0.4936371          
                idBelgium            -3.1309e-02  2.0648e-02 -1.5163 0.1300261          
                idCanada             -2.1748e-02  2.0644e-02 -1.0535 0.2925876          
                idDenmark            -9.8776e-02  2.1279e-02 -4.6419 4.337e-06 ***      
                idFinland             4.3999e-02  2.7177e-02  1.6190 0.1060312          
                idFrance              1.1946e-01  8.5184e-02  1.4023 0.1613908          
                idGermany            -3.2897e-02  2.0661e-02 -1.5922 0.1119198          
                idGreece             -3.2904e-02  2.0653e-02 -1.5931 0.1117111          
                idIreland            -1.6697e-02  2.0639e-02 -0.8090 0.4188695          
                idItaly              -2.2693e-02  2.0642e-02 -1.0994 0.2721027          
                idJapan              -5.3645e-04  2.0630e-02 -0.0260 0.9792640          
                idNetherlands        -8.5921e-03  2.0634e-02 -0.4164 0.6772840          
                idNewZealand          1.5174e-01  6.0858e-02  2.4934 0.0129520 *        
                idPortugal            6.0391e-03  2.1907e-02  0.2757 0.7829047          
                idSpain              -2.4426e-02  2.0646e-02 -1.1831 0.2373040          
                idSweden              8.9175e-03  4.0007e-02  0.2229 0.8236994          
                idSwitzerland        -2.7058e-03  2.0812e-02 -0.1300 0.8966059          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.5922e-02  2.0696e-02 -2.7020 0.0071082 **       
                idUnitedStates       -1.7188e-02  2.0910e-02 -0.8220 0.4114421          
                time1991              1.8655e-03  1.5702e-01  0.0119 0.9905249          
                time1992              5.0708e-03  1.5242e-01  0.0333 0.9734728          
                time1993              1.1432e-02  1.4854e-01  0.0770 0.9386783          
                time1994              7.2153e-02  1.5068e-01  0.4789 0.6322335          
                time1995              6.1787e-02  1.3800e-01  0.4477 0.6545138          
                time1996              3.8442e-02  1.3624e-01  0.2822 0.7779245          
                time1997              3.7300e-02  1.3709e-01  0.2721 0.7856692          
                time1998              8.8011e-02  1.2022e-01  0.7321 0.4644174          
                time1999              4.6721e-02  1.1688e-01  0.3997 0.6895134          
                time2000              3.6440e-02  1.2942e-01  0.2816 0.7783833          
                time2001              4.9322e-02  1.4043e-01  0.3512 0.7255501          
                time2002              5.3926e-02  1.4255e-01  0.3783 0.7053512          
                time2003              5.4548e-02  1.1875e-01  0.4594 0.6461580          
                time2004              1.1783e-02  1.2383e-01  0.0952 0.9242241          
                time2005              5.5509e-02  1.2683e-01  0.4377 0.6618049          
                time2006             -1.2428e-02  1.3241e-01 -0.0939 0.9252534          
                time2007             -4.7266e-03  1.2679e-01 -0.0373 0.9702757          
                time2008             -5.0137e-02  1.3802e-01 -0.3633 0.7165491          
                time2009             -1.0228e-01  1.4537e-01 -0.7035 0.4820169          
                time2010              3.3466e-02  1.4591e-01  0.2294 0.8186763          
                time2011             -3.0504e-02  1.2910e-01 -0.2363 0.8133048          
                time2012             -1.0937e-02  1.3967e-01 -0.0783 0.9376142          
                time2013             -5.0579e-02  1.3705e-01 -0.3691 0.7122347          
                time2014             -8.5058e-02  1.3116e-01 -0.6485 0.5169373          
                time2015             -1.0790e-02  9.9479e-02 -0.1085 0.9136665          
                time2016             -1.7911e-02  1.4252e-01 -0.1257 0.9000383          
                time2017             -1.3708e-03  1.5407e-01 -0.0089 0.9929048          
                time2018             -4.9902e-02  1.7958e-01 -0.2779 0.7812054          
                time2019             -1.0536e-01  1.7056e-01 -0.6177 0.5370330          
                time2020             -1.7458e-01  1.8082e-01 -0.9655 0.3347325          
                time2021             -9.6151e-03  1.7154e-01 -0.0561 0.9553211          
                iis125                3.6881e-01  8.5374e-02  4.3200 1.857e-05 ***      
                iis130                3.5175e-01  8.5157e-02  4.1305 4.192e-05 ***      
                iis140                3.7251e-01  8.5094e-02  4.3776 1.441e-05 ***      
                iis163               -3.4578e-01  8.6799e-02 -3.9837 7.715e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.1559e-01  8.6151e-02 -4.8240 1.832e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.5734e-01  8.7523e-02  4.0828 5.122e-05 ***      
                iis194                2.5417e-01  8.5202e-02  2.9831 0.0029823 **       
                iis410                4.2991e-01  8.5258e-02  5.0425 6.280e-07 ***      
                iis440               -2.6343e-01  8.5363e-02 -3.0860 0.0021328 **       
                iis443                2.3421e-01  8.5147e-02  2.7506 0.0061476 **       
                iis454               -3.0278e-01  8.5280e-02 -3.5504 0.0004182 ***      
                iis502                4.7650e-01  9.3472e-02  5.0978 4.758e-07 ***      
                iis516                2.7593e-01  8.5638e-02  3.2221 0.0013492 **       
                iis528                4.1087e-01  9.3939e-02  4.3738 1.465e-05 ***      
                fesisFinland.2005    -9.9863e-02  3.1707e-02 -3.1496 0.0017255 **       
                fesisFrance.1992     -3.5294e-01  9.6630e-02 -3.6525 0.0002849 ***      
                fesisFrance.1995      2.1722e-01  5.1140e-02  4.2476 2.544e-05 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.4113e-01  7.6300e-02 -4.4709 9.493e-06 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  1.8946e-01  5.1069e-02  3.7098 0.0002289 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.5954e-01  5.1257e-02 -5.0634 5.657e-07 ***      
                fesisSweden.1996     -1.8057e-01  5.6066e-02 -3.2206 0.0013561 **       
                fesisSweden.2001      1.5298e-01  4.5722e-02  3.3458 0.0008774 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                    Chi-sq df  p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.45493  1 0.500001          
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.50420  1 0.000406 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.08122      
                R-squared          0.49967      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  714.74434      
p = 0.001

                Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq + g.cdd + g.hdd      
                NOLUX_EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1      
                      
                Date: Wed Nov 30 13:20:54 2022       
                Dependent var.: y       
                Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)      
                Variance-Covariance: Ordinary       
                No. of observations (mean eq.): 619       
                Sample: 1 to 619       
                      
                SPECIFIC mean equation:      
                      
                                            coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value          
                ar1                  -1.7879e-01  3.5433e-02 -5.0459 6.127e-07 ***      
                d.lgdp_wb            -2.7062e+01  3.6065e+01 -0.7504 0.4533468          
                d.lpop                2.1937e+00  1.4121e+01  0.1553 0.8766021          
                d.lgdp_wb_sq          4.7148e-01  6.4214e-01  0.7342 0.4631222          
                g.cdd                -1.2622e-02  2.0736e-02 -0.6087 0.5429891          
                g.hdd                 3.4614e-03  2.1955e-01  0.0158 0.9874271          
                idAustria            -1.3654e-02  2.3188e-02 -0.5888 0.5562128          
                idBelgium            -2.9640e-02  2.3204e-02 -1.2774 0.2020015          
                idCanada             -2.0298e-02  2.3200e-02 -0.8749 0.3819831          
                idDenmark             5.8969e-02  4.1479e-02  1.4217 0.1556887          
                idFinland            -1.9520e-02  2.3605e-02 -0.8270 0.4086139          
                idFrance             -2.2945e-02  2.3206e-02 -0.9887 0.3232198          
                idGermany            -3.0732e-02  2.3215e-02 -1.3238 0.1861138          
                idGreece             -3.1017e-02  2.3208e-02 -1.3365 0.1819462          
                idIreland            -1.5500e-02  2.3196e-02 -0.6682 0.5042778          
                idItaly              -2.1320e-02  2.3198e-02 -0.9190 0.3584750          
                idJapan              -5.6153e-04  2.3187e-02 -0.0242 0.9806879          
                idNetherlands        -7.7504e-03  2.3191e-02 -0.3342 0.7383585          
                idNewZealand          1.3521e-01  6.8198e-02  1.9827 0.0478959 *        
                idPortugal           -5.6151e-03  2.3833e-02 -0.2356 0.8138304          
                idSpain              -2.2840e-02  2.3202e-02 -0.9844 0.3253540          
                idSweden             -1.3717e-02  2.3192e-02 -0.5915 0.5544588          
                idSwitzerland         8.1206e-03  2.3223e-02  0.3497 0.7267075          
                idUnitedKingdom      -5.2769e-02  2.3247e-02 -2.2699 0.0235937 *        
                idUnitedStates       -1.4685e-02  2.3497e-02 -0.6250 0.5322466          
                time1991              4.1492e-02  1.7613e-01  0.2356 0.8138459          
                time1992             -8.3881e-03  1.7123e-01 -0.0490 0.9609475          
                time1993              3.1036e-03  1.6688e-01  0.0186 0.9851689          
                time1994              6.9054e-02  1.6929e-01  0.4079 0.6835023          
                time1995              6.2129e-02  1.5506e-01  0.4007 0.6888149          
                time1996              4.3151e-02  1.5291e-01  0.2822 0.7779010          
                time1997              4.4410e-02  1.5400e-01  0.2884 0.7731636          
                time1998              8.5842e-02  1.3479e-01  0.6368 0.5244877          
                time1999              6.0579e-02  1.3122e-01  0.4616 0.6445186          
                time2000              4.0880e-02  1.4539e-01  0.2812 0.7786822          
                time2001              5.8088e-02  1.5779e-01  0.3681 0.7129182          
                time2002              6.1598e-02  1.6017e-01  0.3846 0.7007044          
                time2003              6.0727e-02  1.3343e-01  0.4551 0.6492025          
                time2004              1.8384e-02  1.3915e-01  0.1321 0.8949359          
                time2005              6.2181e-02  1.4252e-01  0.4363 0.6627847          
                time2006             -8.9388e-03  1.4879e-01 -0.0601 0.9521179          
                time2007             -1.8998e-03  1.4247e-01 -0.0133 0.9893655          
                time2008             -4.6262e-02  1.5509e-01 -0.2983 0.7655938          
                time2009             -1.0048e-01  1.6334e-01 -0.6151 0.5387143          
                time2010              4.1050e-02  1.6384e-01  0.2506 0.8022525          
                time2011             -2.7762e-02  1.4507e-01 -0.1914 0.8483092          
                time2012             -4.1755e-03  1.5694e-01 -0.0266 0.9787838          
                time2013             -4.6143e-02  1.5400e-01 -0.2996 0.7645687          
                time2014             -7.7400e-02  1.4737e-01 -0.5252 0.5996514          
                time2015             -4.2015e-03  1.1178e-01 -0.0376 0.9700292          
                time2016             -1.5164e-02  1.6016e-01 -0.0947 0.9246046          
                time2017              4.7160e-03  1.7313e-01  0.0272 0.9782781          
                time2018             -4.5057e-02  2.0179e-01 -0.2233 0.8233945          
                time2019             -1.0006e-01  1.9164e-01 -0.5221 0.6017918          
                time2020             -1.6918e-01  2.0317e-01 -0.8327 0.4053739          
                time2021             -2.8586e-03  1.9272e-01 -0.0148 0.9881710          
                iis140                3.8987e-01  9.5848e-02  4.0675 5.440e-05 ***      
                iis170               -4.4483e-01  9.5375e-02 -4.6640 3.891e-06 ***      
                iis171                3.5058e-01  9.6730e-02  3.6242 0.0003164 ***      
                fesisDenmark.1997    -1.6291e-01  4.2889e-02 -3.7984 0.0001617 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.0982e-01  8.5570e-02 -3.6206 0.0003208 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1996  4.6717e-01  8.5570e-02  5.4595 7.211e-08 ***      
                fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9981e-01  6.8953e-02 -4.3481 1.634e-05 ***      
                fesisPortugal.2019   -2.3443e-01  5.7242e-02 -4.0954 4.842e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                      
                Diagnostics and fit:      
                      
                                   Chi-sq df   p-value          
                Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.7172  1  0.009549 **       
                Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.2808  1 9.265e-05 ***      
                ---      
                Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1      
                                                
                SE of regression   0.09129      
                R-squared          0.35157      
                Log-lik.(n=619)  635.40302